Türkiye is headed for a record soybean import year. Nearly all of it travels through the Black Sea. Wartime disruptions have already cut Ukrainian deliveries 16% in four months.
When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls the Ukraine war the greatest source of global economic uncertainty, he has the import figures to back it up.
A record year on fragile foundations
Türkiye’s animal feed sector has doubled its soybean imports over the past decade, and the import pipeline that feeds it runs straight through the Black Sea.
World Grain reports that Türkiye’s soybean imports are expected to hit 4.4 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year—a new record, up from roughly 4.2 million tonnes the previous season. Ukraine is Türkiye’s second-largest supplier after the United States.
Delays to Ukrainian soybean shipments pushed Türkiye’s total imports down 16% between September and December 2025.
But the war is already cutting into that supply. Delays to Ukrainian soybean shipments pushed Türkiye’s total imports down 16% between September and December 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, with Ukraine delivering 358,000 tonnes over those four months against a US total of 442,000 tonnes.
The war does not register as an abstraction in Türkiye’s feed sector. It registers in the quarterly import data.
“No one can predict where the world ends up”
Speaking at an iftar dinner with members of his Justice and Development Party on 12 March, Erdoğan said: “The global economy is experiencing the greatest uncertainty since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. No one can accurately predict where the world will end up if the war continues.”
“We want tears in our region to stop, conflicts to end, for peace and calm to prevail.”
“We want tears in our region to stop, conflicts to end, for peace and calm to prevail. As Türkiye, we are making significant efforts to keep hands off the trigger, to achieve a ceasefire and restore negotiations,” he said, as reported by Mezha.
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Black Sea security—and Türkiye’s leverage
Two days before that speech, Erdoğan had made his move. In a 10 March call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he offered Türkiye as the venue for the next round of trilateral Ukraine-US-Russia talks.
“The conflict in Iran must not obstruct the peace efforts for Ukraine,” Erdoğan said in a statement. “It would be beneficial to continue the negotiations without delay and to staunch Ukraine’s wounds.”
“Navigation safety in the Black Sea is of utmost importance to Türkiye.”
He also addressed Black Sea navigation—the waterway Türkiye controls access to via the Bosphorus Strait, and through which most of its grain imports pass.
“Navigation safety in the Black Sea is of utmost importance to Türkiye. A ceasefire protecting energy and port infrastructure can contribute to establishing trust between the parties,” he said.
Zelenskyy’s office confirmed the offer, adding that Erdoğan had expressed Türkiye’s readiness to take a leadership role in ensuring maritime security as part of the Coalition of the Willing.
Zelenskyy thanked Ankara for its backing of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, and said he hoped the next round of talks would produce results on par with previous Istanbul meetings, which secured significant progress on prisoner exchanges.
Russian surveillance drones have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace.
Turkish cargo vessels have been struck in the Black Sea during the war—one Turkish ship hit a mine en route to a Ukrainian port in 2023, and in December 2025, a large fire broke out on another Turkish ship anchored at the Ukrainian port city of Odesa after it was hit in a Russian strike.
Russian surveillance drones have repeatedly violated Turkish airspace. Ankara has responded by shooting them down without warning.
Türkiye’s record soybean import year depends on none of that getting worse.
