Russia is trying to pressure the US amid peace talks on Ukraine initiated by President Donald Trump, says military expert Dmytro Snehiriov. Moscow needs to show it has real achievements. That's why Russian forces have been targeting 700,000 civilians in Zaporizhzhia city for many weeks, Espreso writes.
More than 70% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast is under Russian occupation. However, the region's main city, Zaporizhzhia, remains under Ukrainian control.
While the negotiations have continued for more than a year and brought no results, the terror of Zaporizhzhia has also increased. Recently, the city endured the record 8-hour Russian attack, with Moscow striking pregnant women and children during the so-called energy ceasefire.
"If you can’t capture it — destroy it"
The occupiers are unlikely to storm Zaporizhzhia this year, but they will try to get as close as possible to strike the residential infrastructure on the outskirts, experts say.
This means the civilians will have no time to hide when the Russians launch their attacks, which will result in an increased number of deaths. The strikes will likely stop all activity in the city and devastate it, turning its streets into deserted ruins. Zaporizhzhia has no subway to shelter all the civilians.
This tactic would allow them to carry out periodic strikes on infrastructure and residential areas without a full-scale assault, as it is happening, for example, in Kherson.
Not storming: artillery distance as Russia's main goal
According to Snehiriov, Russia's immediate strategic plans in the Zaporizhzhia direction do not include an immediate assault on the regional center.
Instead, the key task is to reach a distance where residential areas of Zaporizhzhia can be struck with tube artillery, 10–15 kilometers.
“Without taking full control of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, or Kupiansk, they have concentrated their main efforts here,” Snehiriov notes.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in general, a Russian important goal is to cut Ukrainian communications and logistics routes, especially in the north of the region. This could significantly complicate the supply of Ukrainian units in other defense areas.
Accordingly, the main task of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is to prevent Moscow from reaching the effective artillery range of Zaporizhzhia.
Destruction of Zaporizhzhia will deal serious blow to Ukrainian economy
Yuri Fedorenko, the commander of the Achilles separate drone brigade, says that the elimination of the city can exceptionally impact Ukraine's defense efforts.
“Zaporizhzhia is a huge industrial hub of our state, where a significant number of enterprises work for the Ukrainian economy,” says Fedorenko.
Zaporizhzhia is large, and it is impossible to fully destroy it with missile weapons or Shahed drones.
To do this, the Russian military needs to create conditions to get close enough to bring the city under fire control with multiple rocket launchers and artillery. This is exactly what Russian forces are striving for.
Meanwhile, due to the intensification of fighting and the slow advance of Russian troops, frontline villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are gradually emptying. People are evacuated by police and volunteers, Reuters reports in an article titled: “No one wants to die.”
Between slow pressure and disrupted plans
Considering the current situation on the front, the force balance, and military analysts’ assessments, developments in the Zaporizhzhia direction this year may unfold along several basic scenarios — from a slow enemy advance to the stabilization of Ukrainian defenses.
Realistic (most likely): Slow advance with a focus on Huliaipole, Orikhiv, and the southeastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia. Russians aim to get close (15–20 km) to systematically shell the city with artillery and various types of drones.
An increase in strikes on Zaporizhzhia has already been recorded, according to the head of Zaporizhzhia Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov.
Optimistic (possible): Ukrainian forces stabilize the front, conduct local counterattacks, and the Russian advance is stopped. Russian troops would not be able to reach the city's artillery range.
Pessimistic (unlikely): In the event of a breach in Ukrainian defenses, attempts to advance at the end of the year are possible, but even then, a full-scale storming of Zaporizhzhia remains unlikely due to the complexity of urban combat and the scale of resources required.
