- Russian drones are ranging deeper into Ukraine
- Their latest target: a Ukrainian air force F-16—but not a real one
- Decoys are taking on even greater importance as Russian deep strikes escalate
Some Russians cheered when, on Thursday, it seemed a Russian drone from the elite Rubicon group had struck an irreplaceable Ukrainian air force Lockheed Martin F-16 fighter on the ground at an air base near Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast, in central Ukraine 200 km front the front line.
But it's evident, from the appearance of the F-16 in the BM-35 drone's video feed, that the aircraft was an unflyable decoy made of rubber or wood. Its air intake was the wrong shape. Its wings drooped. Even Rubin conceded it had hit a fake F-16.
The bad news for the Ukrainian air force is that, thanks to improvements to airframes and communications, Rubicon's first-person-view drones such as that BM-35 are reaching deeper and deeper into Ukraine and threatening more Ukrainian airfields and the precious aircraft they shelter.
The good news for the Ukrainian air force is that, for now, it probably still has plenty of decoy F-16s to distract Russian forces away from its growing fleet of real F-16s, nearly 90 of which a Belgian-Danish-Dutch consortium has pledged to the Ukrainian war effort.
For a couple of years now, Ukraine has enjoyed an edge in unmanned deep strikes. Consider the Ukrainian state security agency's relentless unmanned raids on Russian air defenses and parked warplanes in occupied Crimea, 100 km or farther from the front line in southern Ukraine.
Last year, the SBU hit no fewer than 15 Russian aircraft in Crimea.
But the Russians are catching up. Late last year, Rubicon released footage depicting drone strikes on high-value targets as far as 200 km behind the front line.
Starlink satellite communications terminals, which Russia acquires from billionaire Elon Musk's Starlink firm via illicit means, are one key to the Russian drone escalation. More Russian drones are appearing with the small, reliable Starlinks on their spines. The same terminals equip many of Ukraine's own deep-strike drones, especially the ones striking in Crimea.
Decoys helps draw the drones away from real targets. Some Ukrainian units craft their own crude decoys out of junk or derelict equipment. There's also a cottage industry of small Ukrainian workshops churning out fake vehicles and weapons. Foreign firms sell some of the most convincing inflatable decoys.
Instructional airframes
In addition to made-to-distract decoys, the Ukrainian air force also possesses a significant number of real but unflyable F-16s that are useful as instructional airframes for air force trainees, but which could also function as decoys.
The United States has supplied many of these instructional airframes. When Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy celebrated the arrival of the first ex-European F-16s in Ukraine in August 2024, two of the single-seat, single-engine supersonic fighters sat parked behind him.
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But those two F-16s weren't the flyable F-16A/B Mid-Life Update models that equip the Ukrainian air force's sole F-16 unit, the 107th Separate Air Wing. Instead, they were unflyable F-16A Air Defense Fighter variants sourced from American surplus stocks.
There were telltale signs. The F-16s lacked stenciling such as safety markings and serial numbers, sported sun-aged canopies and seemingly had empty bays where their 20-millimeter cannons should be. Most tellingly, the antennae on their noses—parts of their “identification friend or foe” radio transponders—were the wrong type for an F-16A/B MLU.
Nine months later in May 2025, an enterprising photographer spotted an old American F-16 being loaded onto a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 transport at Tucson International Airport in Arizona. Keystone Intel subsequently dug up additional imagery, posted by a logistics firm, of two more old F-16 fuselages being squeezed into the huge airlifter.
It’s obvious where the disassembled F-16s came from. Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson is home to the US Air Force’s 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group, which stores thousands of surplus US military aircraft including older F-16s.
The United States has refused to supply Ukraine with flyable F-16s despite possessing many hundreds of them. But it has helpfully supplied Ukraine with at least a few unflyable F-16s that can help distract Russian drones.
The problem, of course, is that the Ukrainians may need many more decoys as Russian drones range deeper behind the front line and threaten more airfields. The increasingly Russia-aligned administration of US Pres. Donald Trump may not be willing to give away or even sell more old F-16s.
As more Russian drones barrel down, more Ukrainian-made decoys may be the best alternative to American airframes.
