European intelligence agencies are stepping into the void left by America's strategic retreat. The shift is reshaping how Ukraine fights—and what Kyiv can see on the battlefield.
France now provides Ukraine with two-thirds of all intelligence it receives, President Emmanuel Macron claimed on January 15. The assertion is disputed. Kyrylo Budanov, now Zelenskyy's chief of staff, said in December that Kyiv "remained critically dependent" on Washington for satellite imagery and early warning systems. A western official told the Financial Times that Ukraine's reliance on American intelligence "could be largely reduced within months."
The March 2025 US pause forced a broader reckoning across the alliance.
"Now we are in quite a different debate: do we trust the US guarantee at all?" —Steven Everts, EU Institute for Strategic Studies
What this means for Ukraine's battlefield
Real-time satellite data lets Ukrainian commanders track Russian troop concentrations, ammunition depots, and air defense positions. This is the targeting intelligence behind Kyiv's long-range strikes. When Washington suspended sharing in March 2025, the gap hit hard. It affected not just government feeds but commercial providers like Maxar—showing how thoroughly American leverage extended through the private sector.
Ukraine responded by diversifying. The military intelligence agency (HUR) now operates a dedicated platform to analyze French satellite imagery from the CSO-3 system. The satellite launched in March 2025. The agreement was signed in February, anticipating the US pause before it happened.
Even Japan has joined the effort. Tokyo is sharing SAR satellite imagery with Ukraine's GUR—the first time it has provided such sensitive geospatial intelligence to any foreign nation.
But Budanov has warned European partners against over-reliance on technology.
"Stop believing that technical intelligence will solve everything. No one will discuss and plan an operation on a mobile phone." —Kyrylo Budanov, now Zelenskyy's chief of staff
He urged allies to return to human intelligence—networks of spies that "nearly all European countries have buried," he told RBC-Ukraine.
Visualization of non-US intel gathering
European intelligence steps up for Ukraine
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The UK and France pledged continued intelligence support when Washington suspended sharing. The UK operates three RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft to intercept Russian communications. These missions have "directly aided Ukraine's defense efforts," according to The National Interest. France runs its satellite-based CERES signals interception program. Germany and Italy provide radar imaging data.
The Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space Initiative (APSS) now shares data from 18 nations' surveillance satellites. Operational since 2025 under the codename "Aquila," the $1 billion program represents NATO's largest multinational space project.
Finland's ICEYE has emerged as a linchpin. The firm's radar satellites detected Russian troop movements before the 2022 invasion. It now operates 54 SAR satellites and has signed contracts with the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, and Portugal. Germany's Rheinmetall formed a joint venture with ICEYE to manufacture SAR satellites domestically.
Carlo Masala, professor of international politics at Bundeswehr University Munich, argues that fully substituting for the US is "the wrong objective."
"It's not about being as good as the US, which will take us 15 years or even longer. It is just being better than the Russians."
That is achievable in three to four years, he told the FT. For Ukraine, the question is whether European intelligence can mature fast enough to matter on the battlefield.
