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Outgunned territorials retreat. Now the path to Zaporizhzhia is open.

Ukrainian commanders neglected the defense of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Now the town has fallen … and the chaos has just begun.
byDavid Axe
30/12/2025
5 minute read
A 106th TDF Brigade soldier.
A 106th TDF Brigade soldier. 106th TDF Brigade photo.
Outgunned territorials retreat. Now the path to Zaporizhzhia is open.
  • Ukrainian commanders concentrated their forces in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts
  • That left Zaporizhzhia Oblast under-manned—and vulnerable to Russian attack
  • Abruptly just before Christmas, a Russian brigade captured Huliaipole, a critical strongpoint in Zaporizhzhia
  • Now Ukrainian defenses in the oblast are in disarray

Struggling to mobilize enough fresh manpower to fully replace its losses along the front line, the Ukrainian military now has precious few reserves. And that means commanders must make hard choices about where to attack, where to defend ... and where to hope the Russians don't exploit gaps in Ukrainian lines.

It's now evident that, in recent months, the Ukrainian brass chose to attack in Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast in the northeast, defend around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast in the east ... and accept a high degree of risk around Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the southeast.

But hope isn't much of a strategy. Sensing weakness, the powerful Russian Dnipro Group of Forces moved aggressively against Huliaipole, a critical strongpoint for the defense of Zaporizhzhia city, 80 km to the west. Abruptly just before Christmas, the Russian 57th Motor Rifle Brigade captured the town.

Huliaipole was the largest and most fortified Ukrainian stronghold in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast—a town that had long remained impregnable while Russian forces battered themselves against its defenses from multiple directions.

Its fall—chaotic, with at least two top officers killed or captured, a command post abandoned with equipment still inside—wasn't a sudden collapse. It was the predictable result of defending with a few territorial battalions what needed a full brigade. Russia still recruits over 30,000 soldiers monthly. Ukraine doesn't. The 80-km path to Zaporizhzhia city and its 700,000 residents is now open.

Russia captures Huliaipole Zaporizhzhia
Huliaipole and Kupiansk on a map. Ground control via Deepstatemap
A Russian MTU-72 bridgelayer during a 2016 exercise.
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Now Ukrainian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are in disarray. And it's unclear whether, or how, the Ukrainian 17th Army Corps can prevent further Russian gains—and stave off a direct threat to Zaporizhzhia city and its approximately 700,000 residents.

The sparse Ukrainian forces defending the 15-km sector between Huliaipole in the south and Dobropillia in the north—mostly, a clutch of under-manned and poorly equipped units including the 102nd and 106th Territorial Defense Forces brigades—struggled for months to defend the two settlements and the road threading between them.

As the Russians consolidated their control over Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and fell back in Kupiansk, the Ukrainian command was able to chop additional forces to the Dobropillia-Huliaipole sector, including several elite assault regiments and brigades. But it was too little, too late.

Hasty retreat

On 17 December, an assault group from the 57th Motor Rifle Brigade pressed its advantage—and infiltrated into central Huliaipole. The battered remnants of the 102nd and 106th TDF Brigades fell back. At least two top officers were killed or captured, and staff retreated from their command post so hastily that they left behind all of their equipment and sensitive records. "Russian troops seized the command post along with all its contents," observer Thorkill noted.

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The Ukrainian territorials found themselves surrounded in the urban ruins. "The remnants of the 1st Battalion of the 106th [TDF] Brigade, after a desperate, solitary fight, broke out of the encirclement on 20 December," Thorkill added. "According to family accounts, some soldiers from the battalion remained in the city center in scattered small groups, and their fate remains unknown."

80 km to Zaporizhzhia

That battalion has reportedly been all but destroyed. The survivors now fight under the 225th Assault Regiment. Huliaipole is fully under Russian control and, for the Russians, the path to Zaporizhzhia is now clear. Given the slow pace of Russian advances in 2025, the 80-km march to Zaporizhzhia won't be easy or cheap.

But there's no evidence the Russians plan to stop. And in stark contrast to the manpower-starved Ukrainian armed forces, the Russian armed forces are still recruiting more than 30,000 fresh troops a month—enough to make good their heavy losses ... and keep attacking.

It can be hard to make sense of the Ukrainian strategy around Huliaipole. A few territorial battalions cannot be expected to hold off a Russian motor rifle brigade, especially if the territorials lack strong support from adjacent artillery and drone units, as appears to have been the case.

And now Ukrainian forces that should be reconsolidating west of Huliaipole have wasted precious people and equipment in a bizarre local counterattack toward Rivnopillia, 9 km east of Huliaipole. Russian drones struck the Ukrainian assault group on or just before Sunday, destroying an armored truck and a T-64 tank.

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The takeaway

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