Europe stands before a choice that will determine the future of the continent. Helping Ukraine now is far cheaper than making concessions to the Kremlin. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of a new Norwegian study, “Europe’s Choice,” reported by the New York Post.
Baltic states next with $ 1.8 trillion in spending
According to the researchers, financing Ukraine’s defense for four years would cost Europe $606–$972 billion, while reinforcing the EU’s eastern flank in the event of a Russian success would cost twice as much: $1.4–$1.8 trillion.
The report directly states that in the event of a Russian victory, millions of Ukrainian refugees would “flood into Europe,” increasing pressure on EU member state budgets.
It also stresses that the Kremlin would escalate geopolitical pressure, shifting its focus to the Arctic or the Baltic States, which would require additional billions in NATO defense spending.
Diplomatic drama that changes the rules of the game
The study’s authors criticize the administration of Donald Trump, noting that it is “detached from real problems.”
The report emphasizes that Europe cannot rely solely on full American support, as Washington’s new 28-point peace plan underscores the need for the EU to take the lead.
“The recent 28-point peace plan proposed by the Trump administration illustrates the urgent need for Europe to take initiative,” the study concludes.
Europe’s choice is simple: either support Ukraine now, or pay twice as much later and lose strategic balance.
Battle for the future, one Europe can still win
The researchers argue that if the EU mobilizes up to $972 billion to fund the Ukrainian army over a four-year period, a Ukrainian victory becomes achievable.
This would cover procurement of:
- 8 million drones,
- 95 brigades,
- up to 2,500 battle tanks.
“In the event of a permanent conflict or a Russian victory, Ukraine will incur a permanent need for support, while in the event of a Ukrainian military victory, Western support will be much reduced over time,” the report reads.
It also states that part of the funding could come from the confiscation of frozen Russian assets.
Earlier, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson called for the use of frozen Russian assets to provide assistance to Ukraine via a reparations credit. The EU plans to make a decision regarding frozen Russian assets at the summit on 18 December 2025.
However, the final decision on this mechanism has been delayed multiple times, with Belgium raising legal and financial concerns about risks and liabilities, which may create complex legal entanglements, as many of these assets are held in the Euroclear system there.
This aid is crucial for Ukraine at a time when the US has stopped providing assistance packages to Kyiv under President Donald Trump's administration.
