An intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Dnipro carried out by Russia this week is part of the Kremlin’s strategy to prepare for potential peace talks after US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. The approach involves raising stakes later to use them as leverage at the negotiating table, The New York Times reports.
On 21 November, Russia struck Dnipro with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle missile with conventional warheads. Ukraine identified the weapon as an intermediate-range ballistic missile launched from a Kedr missile system. Russia has never used such a weapon against Ukraine before. An investigation of the attack and assessment of the damage are ongoing. This week, Ukraine targeted facilities with long-range missiles, such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS, hitting ammo depots and military bases inside Russia’s territory.
The report says the missile strikes exchanged by Russia and Ukraine this week were more politically motivated and unlikely to alter the broader dynamics of the war due to the relatively limited missile stocks on both sides.
However, Ukraine remains at a significant disadvantage on the battlefield, where its outnumbered forces are gradually retreating under intense Russian assaults.
“Ukraine is rapidly approaching a point where, if it does not address the manpower issue, then it will struggle to defend the length of the front,” wrote the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.
Currently, fears have increased in Ukraine that Russia will escalate its actions in anticipation of negotiations, adhering to its strategy of presenting as many threats as possible to negotiate their removal later.
“Putin’s actions are not aimed at today or tomorrow; they are aimed at 20 January. He wants to influence Trump and bargain for more,” said Valentyn Badrak, a military analyst at the Center for Russian Studies.
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “there is no point in starting peace talks with Russia at this time,” as “strong nations” have yet to develop a unified stance on a just peace. Such a position is necessary for negotiations to become a stalling tactic.
Putin orders Russian troops to retake Kursk Oblast before Trump’s inauguration, says Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy also said that Putin ordered his forces to drive Ukrainian troops out of Kursk Oblast before Trump’s inauguration. The Ukrainian president claimed that “Putin personally appeals to soldiers through his commanders, saying the entire fate of the ‘special military operation’ hinges on the Kursk campaign.”
Related:
- Ukraine builds new brigades instead of reinforcing old units. Here’s why
- WSJ: Russia provided satellite data to Houthis for commercial vessel attacks
- India secures release of 85 citizens from Russian Army, 20 still await discharge
- ISW: Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations in question
- ISW: Kremlin to elevate 50 Ukraine war veterans as mayors and governors in Russia by 2026
- ISW: Kremlin plans to fund crypto-mobilization efforts through 2027
- Putin’s willingness to arm Houthis aims to deter Western support for Ukraine – ISW
