Ukraine intel: Russia ramps up missile production but falls behind pre-war levels

Russia is replenishing its missile stockpile, but it will not be able to return to the level of missile production it used to have before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a representative of Ukraine’s intelligence, Andrii Yusov, said on 24 October.

Russia prepares new missile attacks on Ukraine, ramping up the production of missiles, but it cannot keep up with the pre-war pace of production it had before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Andrii Yusov said.

“They [the Russians – ed.] have time to renew missile stockpiles depending on what to compare it to. They are not keeping up if we compare it to the stockpiles they had before the full-scale invasion. They are not even close. But in general, the invaders produce a certain number of missiles,” Yurii Yusov said.

According to Yusov, Russia focuses on manufacturing Kalibr cruise missiles and produces fewer Kinzhal missiles. If there are no massive missile attacks on Ukraine for a long time, Russia will accumulate missile weapons, Yusov said.

“We are on the verge of a new heating season. And since the terrorist state [Russia – ed.] hasn’t gone anywhere, it is evident that the strikes we saw last winter can be repeated,” Yusov said.

On the other hand, Yusov said that Russia will not be able to accumulate an “incredible number” of missiles for massive attacks on Ukraine. Yusov noted that Russia has not launched 100 or more missiles in one attack for a long time. However, Ukraine takes measures to prepare for massive missile attacks on critical civilian and military infrastructure.

On 16 September, in its daily update on the Russo-Ukrainian war, the UK Intel noted that it expects Russia to launch missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the winter, just like Russia did in 2022 to freeze Ukrainian cities during subzero temperatures.

Last year, Russia launched over 1,200 missiles and kamikaze drones to destroy Ukraine’s energy system, according to Ukrenergo.

Around 250 Russian missiles and drones hit their targets, and 43% of the main power grids were damaged, Ukraine’s state-owned electricity transmission system operator Ukrenergo reported. All thermal and hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine were shelled and damaged.

According to the World Bank, the damage to the Ukrainian power system is exceptional: the immediate need to restore and protect Ukraine’s high-voltage network alone amounted to almost $1 billion in 2023.

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