War in Ukraine, day 11: the defence aid from the West is having an effect

After a particularly bad day for the Russian air force, the Russian offensive operations appear to have entered into a brief operational pause which may be seen as preparations for another offensive. A humanitarian disaster looms as Russians prevent beseiged citizens from leaving or obtaining essential goods. However, we are seeing that the defence aid from the West is having an effect. That’s reflected in the reported numbers of Russian losses, which is first of all a testimony of the Ukrainian resilience in the face of an overwhelming force.

“The eleventh day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people against the Russian military invasion has begun.

[The enemy continues the offensive operation against Ukraine, concentrating its main efforts on encircling the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolayiv, reaching the administrative borders in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and creating a land corridor with the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.]

The Armed Forces and units of the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine are fighting fierce battles to maintain certain borders.

The enemy, suffering losses, makes constant attempts to avoid direct fire contact with our troops.

The [Ukrainian] Defence Forces are conducting a defense operation within the Southern, Eastern and Northern operational zones in order to repel the attack of the occupying forces, inflict maximum losses, prevent their invasion, maintain areas of the state and create favorable conditions for their defeat and regain control on the lost territories, repulses blows of means of air attack of the enemy.

In the Volyn direction, measures are being taken to prepare the entire defense zone in a certain operational zone along the state border of Ukraine.

[The concentration of units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in the areas of the settlements of Hrushka (Maloritsky district) and Khotyslav has been established.]

In the Polissya direction, groups of troops from the Eastern Military District, the Pacific Fleet, and the Airborne Troops of the Russian Armed Forces operate with up to 18 [Batalion Tactical Groups] BTGs in the Polissya, Kukhari, Borodyanka, Byshiv, Gorenichi, and Demidiv settlements [NW and Western Kyiv]].

[According to the available data, after regrouping, units of the Eastern Military District and the Airborne Troops of the RF Armed Forces, which suffered significant losses near the Hostomel airport, are redeploying units of the 76th Airborne Assault Division in the direction of n.p. Belohorodka. The enemy does not abandon attempts to reach the southwestern outskirts of Kyiv.] [The regrouping of enemy troops in the Brovary direction continues. The moving of units in the direction of settlement Peremoha. The occupiers are trying to approach the Brovary-Boryspil highway. [Eastern Kyiv]]

An operation to defend the city of Chernihiv is underway in the Siverskyi region. […A group of troops of the Central Military District with forces of up to 12 BTGs from units of the 41st and 2nd All-Military Armies and the 90th Tank Division is conducting an offensive operation in northeastern Ukraine.] [Up to 100 weapons and military equipment, including the heavy flamethrower system TOS-1 Buratino (“Pinocchio”), were moved in the direction of Kozelets.] [Units of the 6th All-Military Army and the 1st Panzer Army of the Western Military District are being moved to carry out the offensive on Chernihiv and Nizhyn [approximately 110 km NE of Kyiv]].

[In the Slobozhansk direction, a group of up to 23 BTGs from the 1st Tank Army and 20 all-military armies, the 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Armed Forces regrouped in order to resume the offensive in the directions of Lubny, Poltava and Kharkiv.] [According to available information, the occupier intends to seize another important infrastructural object – the dam of Kaniv Hydro Power Plant.]

The [Ukrainian] Joint Forces are conducting a defence operation in the eastern part of the Donetsk operational district. The main efforts are focused on defending the city of Mariupol and inflicting fire damage on the overwhelming forces of the enemy.

[In the Donetsk direction, the enemy is trying to continue offensive operations in the direction of the Dnieper and Zaporizhzhia with forces up to 7 BTGr 1, 2 army corps and 150 motorized infantry divisions.] [In the Mariupol direction, the enemy continues to block the city of Mariupol, to carry out artillery shelling of the city’s civilian infrastructure.] [In the Sievierodonetsk direction, the enemy, with forces up to 2 BTGr, is trying to develop an offensive in the direction of Izium. Stopped on the river Siverskyi Donets. Accumulates manpower and equipment to resume the offensive.] [On the Mykolayiv direction up to 3 BTGr of the 7th airborne assault division of Airborne Troops during the day carried out offensive actions in the direction of the city of Mykolayiv but suffered considerable losses. The enemy did not succeed.] [In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy with forces up to 3 BTGr, with the support of aircraft, is advancing on Zaporozhya, in the direction of settlements of Nova Odesa and Mykolayiv.]

Other [Ukrainian] groups are conducting a defensive operation and conducting defensive battles in Slobozhansk and the eastern part of the Tavriya directions.

In particular, units of the Ais-Assault Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stopped enemy columns trying to advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from Balakliya.

In the coastal direction – the defense of bases, seaports on the Black Sea. In the Mykolayiv area capture of a considerable quantity of armored and automobile equipment of the enemy was planned and realized.

[In the Pivdennyi Buh and Bessarabian areas, units of the task force of Russian troops in the security zone of the self-proclaimed Transnistrian region are on high alert. The moral and psychological state of personnel is at a low level. Most servicemen do not want to take part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, the “chairman” of the self-proclaimed Transnistrian region, Krasnoselsky, has ruled out the possibility of involving units of the Transnistrian Armed Forces in Russia’s war against Ukraine.]

In other areas, units and subdivisions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conduct a stabilization operation and perform territorial defense tasks in order to prevent offensive actions and activities of enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has focused its efforts on repelling enemy missiles and airstrikes, air cover of important (critical) objects of Ukraine, and groups of troops.

[Su-35C, Su-34 and Su-25 aircraft from airfields in Belarus (Baranovichi, Luninets, Lida) were involved in airstrikes on military and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts. In addition, Su-34 bombers from Buturlinovka airfield carried out airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure near the city of Sumy.]

In total, as of now, the losses of aircraft of the Russian occupation forces are up to 88 aircraft and helicopters.

[During the day, significant losses were inflicted on the personnel and equipment of the occupying forces: 4 helicopters, 5 planes and 1 UAV were shot down, several air raids were made on columns of enemy equipment, and the losses are being clarified.]

Altogether, Ukraine has shot down 9 Russian airplanes and helicopters on 5 March – Air Force Command

Collage by @im_PULSE pic.twitter.com/1fWbPd81hG

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 6, 2022

Some enemy pilots who catapulted and survived were found by Ukrainian soldiers. They have received medical treatment and are already testifying about the Putin regime’s crimes against humanity.

The enemy is trying not to lose offensive potential but, in the current situation, has great losses in weapons, equipment, and personnel. Due to the resistance of the entire Ukrainian people, the enemy was demoralized. The reserves of the Russian occupiers, which are coming to replenish units, have an extremely low moral and psychological state, due to awareness of the real state of affairs.”

“as Russian military progress has slowed, we have seen a shift to urban siege warfare, involving the use of indiscriminate heavy explosive weapons and airstrikes in order to subdue towns and cities. This is changing the pollution risks that we are seeing, from predominantly military sites, to those from industrial and commercial properties, which in places are sited close to residential areas.

There is growing concern over the environmental threats that this highly destructive warfare in a heavily industrialised country is creating. Russia’s track record on the protection of civilians, its conduct thus far, and its views around the protection of the environment in relation to armed conflicts mean that those concerns are justified. At the UN Environment Assembly, which concluded this week, 108 NGOs backed a statement deploring Russia’s actions and calling for support to monitor and address the environmental harm being caused. Meanwhile, an open letter addressing environmental concerns attracted more than 1,000 expert and organisational signatories from the field of environmental peacebuilding. The conflict’s environmental narrative is being picked up by the media, particularly in the wake of Russian military actions around nuclear sites.”

“14 wide-bodied aircraft transported a bristling array of Javelin antitank missiles, rocket launchers, guns and ammunition to an airfield near Ukraine’s border on Friday, as the United States and European allies ramped up their efforts to give the Ukrainian military a leg up in battling a foreign enemy that far outguns it.” “What began as a trickle — with only two or three planes arriving a day — is now a steady flow, the official said, with 14 loads from one airfield alone.”

“The shipment of weapons — which also includes Stinger antiaircraft missiles from US military stockpiles, mostly in Germany — represents the largest single authorized transfer of arms from US military warehouses to another country,” the Pentagon official said. US officials said the weaponry, equipment and other war matériel were being flown to neighbouring countries like Poland and Romania and then shipped over land into western Ukraine to commanders for distribution across the country.

On Thursday, Mr. Zelensky claimed in a video on Telegram that 16,000 volunteers had joined the international brigade, though it is unclear what the true number is. The New York Times was not able to identify any veterans actively fighting in Ukraine. On Thursday Military Times quoted a defence official at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington, D.C., telling that they have already received more than 3,000 applications for US citizens wanting to fight.

Some believe that the Legion can become the largest band of volunteers to fight in Europe since the Spanish civil war.

“Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
• Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground offensive operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, conducted a counter-offensive that reportedly penetrated to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and supporting efforts along the Chernihiv and Sumy axes to encircle it from the northeast and east.

Russian operations against Kyiv made little progress in the past 24 hours. ISW has tentatively concluded that Russian movements to the eastern outskirts of the city reported in our March 4 update were likely raids or forward elements that did not hold ground much beyond the towns of Nizhyn and Priluky on the Sumy axis; we have updated our control of terrain map accordingly. Russian troops made no significant advances around Kyiv in the past 24 hours.”