Brent crude jumped more than 8% to around $103 a barrel Monday after US-Iran peace talks failed in Islamabad and President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—undoing in five days most of the price drop that followed last week’s ceasefire.
Before Monday’s surge, American drivers were already paying more for gasoline than at any point since 2023, according to AAA.
The same price spike that fills Russia’s coffers drains Ukraine’s.
Oil revenues fund Russia’s war: when crude prices rise, Moscow earns more. Russia’s Urals crude—its primary export blend—reached $114.66 per barrel as of 10 April, near its highest level since 2013, and Russia’s daily fossil fuel revenues hit $270 million in March—twice January’s level.
When Brent fell 15% on 8 April—its steepest single-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War—that income briefly shrank. The blockade announcement restored it. Ukraine, which imports most of its refined fuel after Russian strikes on domestic refining capacity, pays more for every barrel Brent gains.
The disruption reaches beyond the war’s immediate geography.
The two effects compound: the same price spike that fills Russia’s coffers drains Ukraine’s.
The disruption reaches beyond the war’s immediate geography. Thailand faced fuel shortages by late March as tanker traffic through the Strait dried up; other Asian economies dependent on Gulf oil shipments are in a similar position.
Why Pakistan failed
Talks in Islamabad on 11 April ended without agreement. The US accused Tehran of refusing to curb its nuclear ambitions. Iran reportedly sought control of the strait itself, war reparations, a broader regional ceasefire including Lebanon, and access to frozen overseas assets.
“Enjoy the current pump figures.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, wrote on X after the breakdown: “Enjoy the current pump figures. Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
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The blockade vs. the toll
Iran’s leverage since the conflict began has rested on the Strait itself—imposing a transit fee and threatening ships that didn’t pay. Trump’s blockade reverses the logic: deny Iran toll revenue and block Iran’s own oil exports, rather than accept Tehran’s terms for passage.
Analysts at the Eurasia Group told Axios Sunday that the blockade announcement “will further discourage shipping through the strait, keeping volumes below 10% of the prewar level and putting continued pressure on oil prices.”
Saudi Arabia said it has restored full pumping capacity through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.
Helima Croft, who analyzes energy markets for RBC Capital Markets, said in a note that Trump may be calculating that China—which relies on Iranian crude—will push harder for a deal if its energy supply faces a cutoff.
Saudi Arabia said it has restored full pumping capacity through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and resumed output from the Manifa field. It wasn’t enough to move markets.
Two bad options
A blockade that fails restores the Iranian toll dynamic. A successful blockade could prompt Tehran to escalate attacks on regional energy facilities.
The five-day window when Brent briefly dipped toward $90 is the story now—not the ceasefire.
