In March, Russian forces suffered their highest personnel losses since the start of 2026 — 31,960 troops, according to analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko. These losses largely resulted from the launch of the spring–summer offensive campaign in Ukraine.
“This is not a record level of losses, but it is still very high, even compared to average figures from last year, especially in relation to territorial gains,” the expert notes.
In March, Russian forces captured 155 km² of Ukrainian territory — one of the lowest figures compared to the first half of 2025.
For comparison, during last year’s summer offensive, Russian troops advanced at an average rate of 130–150 km² per week. In other words, the pace has slowed nearly fourfold.
Worst situation is on Sloviansk–Kramatorsk axis
“The most negative sector in terms of territorial gains remains the eastern flank of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk bridgehead — over 70 km² lost in a month,” Kovalenko says.
At the same time, the loss ratio reached a record 206 troops per 1 km² in March.
For comparison, during the 2025 spring–summer campaign, the ratios were:
- April — 36,260 losses over 186 km² (194 per km²)
- May — 35,370 over 440 km² (80 per km²)
- June — 32,420 over 497 km² (65 per km²)
- July — 33,220 over 537 km² (61 per km²)
- August — 27,940 over 467 km² (59 per km²)
The share of killed in Russian losses remains consistently high at 60–65% since late 2025.
Given the growing monthly losses and the relatively low recruitment rate in Russia (around 20–22 thousand volunteers per month), Kovalenko warns that Russia may soon face a serious manpower shortage.
“The Putin's regime will only be able to solve this through full-scale mobilization,” the expert says.
According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian forces have liberated 480 km² since 29 January 2026, thanks to systematic counterattacks. About 80 km² of that was reclaimed in March alone.
If this is factored in, Russia’s net territorial gains in March drop to under 75 km², with losses reaching 426 troops per 1 km².
“This is an absolute anti-record for the entire full-scale war,” Kovalenko concludes.
