Russia is building its own satellite network as an alternative to Starlink called Rassvet — “Dawn” — after Starlink access was cut off last month.
Rassvet’s developer, Bureau 1440, launched the first 16 units on 23 March. The company plans to launch 250 more satellites by 2027. Dmitriy Bakanov, head of Russia’s state space corporation Roskosmos, plans to have a total of 900 in orbit by 2035.
Starlink is extremely useful for both battlefield communication and controlling drones, which is how both Ukrainians and Russians have used it. The Russians have been using Starlink to enhance their Shahed drones used to kill civilians and attack power plants.
Ukraine’s February move to cut unauthorized Starlink access on its territory have sent the Russian forces scrambling for alternatives.
It will likely take Russia a long time to have a functional network, analysts said. However, Moscow has the means to build it, a Ukrainian engineer with Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces told Euromaidan Press.
“I think we are safe for the next 5 years,” said the engineer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But realistically, they have everything to make it work: engineers, Chinese manufacturers, a space program. So it's down to their priorities, financial situation and approach.”
Anton Zemlyanyi, a senior analyst with the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, said “it is important not to overestimate Moscow’s successes, as the Bureau has only carried out two tests so far, launching three Rassvet-1 satellites in 2023 and three Rassvet-2 in 2024.”
Zamlyanyi said the technology will likely be undercooked for a long time, with the volume of satellites planned already causing delays. Even if Russia succeeds, 900 satellites cannot quite compare with Starlink’s 10,000.
Still, the project means that Russia has moved from the laboratory stage to serial deployment, he added.
Starlink replacement
Starlink, owned by SpaceX, allows high-speed, high-frequency, near-ubiquitous connection that’s hard to jam. The Unmanned Systems engineer said there’s “nothing else like it.”
After Ukraine began working with SpaceX to cut off the Russians, by creating a whitelist for legitimate users, widespread disruptions were observed along the front line. Russian command and control went down in many places, grinding down assaults. The Russians have since rushed to implement alternatives.
Rassvet may be one of the longer-term alternative plans. While it was developed for civilian use like communication between civilian aircraft and the ground, it “can now be described as an attempt by the enemy to replace the Starlink technology,” Zemlyanyi said.
The satellites use proprietary platforms from Bureau 1440, based on 5G NTN architecture, with a reported connection speed of 10 Mbit per second and a latency of 46 milliseconds. According to the company, it took 1,000 days to move from experimental prototypes to serial production.
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Roskosmos planned to start launching the first satellites in 2025, however the launch window was delayed because not enough units had been assembled.
Russia is spending 102.8 billion rubles ($1.36 billion) on the project. Bureau 1440 is planning to spend a total of 329 billion rubles ($4.36 billion) until 2030.
Ukraine working on constellations of its own
Similar plans exist in Ukraine, though on a smaller scale.
Ukrainian company STETMAN is planning to launch its own UASAT low earth orbit satellite in October, with a goal to eventually create a constellation of 245 units. The goal is to reduce reliance on external companies such as SpaceX.
STETMAN says it's being supported by the Ukrainian government and European partners and has already registered the first satellite with Ukraine's regulatory bodies.
Additionally, Deputy Prime Minister for Strategic Industries Oleh Urusky said last month that SpaceX was selected to launch the Sich 2-30 remote sensing satellite into orbit in December.
Urusky said the Sich 2-30 is “practically ready.”
However, scaling production is likely to remain a challenge, given Ukraine’s relative lack of financial resources compared to larger countries, including Russia.
