Finland's President Alexander Stubb has given a blunt assessment of how US policy shifts under Donald Trump are undermining efforts to defeat Russia in Ukraine, telling The Telegraph that the easing of American oil sanctions on Moscow is "very damaging" and will "feed the Russian war machine."
The interview, published on 22 March 2026, marks a notable shift in tone from Stubb, who met Trump on a golf course at Mar-a-Lago in 2025 and at the time told Europeans to "calm down, take a nice bath, take a sauna, take a deep breath" and engage rather than disengage with Washington. A year later, his message has changed to four words: "Salvage what you can."
The sanctions reversal
The immediate trigger for Stubb's concern is Trump's decision to ease oil sanctions on Russia in response to the global energy crisis that followed the US attack on Iran on 28 February 2026. Approximately 120 million barrels of Russian oil, previously frozen out of international markets, are now free to reach buyers. Trump separately issued India — Russia's second-largest oil customer after China — a special waiver to resume imports of Russian crude.
According to the Financial Times, the combination of rising oil prices and lighter sanctions will deliver Russia an additional $150 million per day. Stubb, when presented with that figure, replied: "Wouldn't surprise me at all."
He laid out what Russia's economic position had looked like before the Iran war changed the picture: "They were looking at zero growth, zero reserves, 16 per cent interest rates, double-digit inflation and an incapacity of the Russian government to pay soldiers. And they were looking at a budget deficit going up from a deficit from last year of $83bn to a deficit of $130bn."
That pressure has now been relieved. "With the rising oil price, with the lifting of the sanctions, we don't know, so this will have a negative effect," Stubb told The Telegraph.
Asked whether US sanctions might be permanently suspended rather than restored once the Iran crisis ends, Stubb declined to speculate: "We simply don't know at this stage."
Ukraine's battlefield position
Stubb's pessimism on the economic front stands in contrast to his assessment of Ukraine's military performance. He told The Telegraph that Ukrainian forces have killed over 90,000 Russian soldiers in the past three months — a rate he describes as substantially higher than Russian losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces — and that 80 per cent of those deaths have come through drone strikes.
"The Russians are not able to recruit soldiers at the same pace that they are losing them," he said, adding that "Ukraine's military capacity is much stronger than it was a year ago."
He also noted that peace negotiations are now underway — a development absent a year ago — and that progress has been made toward agreeing American security guarantees for Ukraine.
The Atlantic alliance: from partnership to salvage
Stubb, who describes himself as "a pro-American and avid trans-Atlanticist," told The Telegraph he now regards the trans-Atlantic partnership as fundamentally altered. "We must face reality — the West has split," he said. "It's not a rupture, or a destruction of the trans-Atlantic partnership, but it is a shift. And there's a crack right now emerging between Europe and the US, which, again, as an avid pro-American and trans-Atlanticist, I lament. But it's a reality that I have to live with."
His diagnosis of what has changed centers on US consultation practices. "In the olden days, when the US was a benign hegemon, it would consult its allies first — in Libya, in Iraq and in Afghanistan — and it would also seek the approval of the UN Security Council. And, failing that, it would go with its allies. This time around, the United States has acted alone, or together with Israel, without informing allies," he said. His use of the past tense — America "was" a benign hegemon — was deliberate.
Stubb draws a distinction between ideology and policy in describing the current US approach. "One is American Maga foreign policy. And Maga is an ideology: it's anti-globalisation, it's anti-international institutions, it's anti-Europe, or anti-European Union at least. Then the second thing is America First. That's a policy, not an ideology," he told The Telegraph. Under that policy, he says, Europe ranks third in the US National Security Strategy's pecking order, after the western hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific.
His prescription for European governments: "Don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Salvage what you can of the trans-Atlantic partnership — like Nato, like defence — and then cordially disagree on tariffs, on climate change and on other things."
Direct line to Trump
Stubb confirmed to The Telegraph that he has spoken with Trump since the Iran war began, though he declined to disclose the substance of those contacts. "Diplomacy has two tracks. One is public diplomacy, the other one is private diplomacy. And you know, in order for you to be effective, you have to find the right balance. All I can tell you is that, from a Finnish perspective, I try to pick my battles. So my war is the war in Ukraine."
The interview was conducted in London, where Stubb met British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. The three leaders and their spouses were seen running together in Hyde Park on 17 March 2026.
