A large majority of Ukrainians do not believe current negotiations will lead to a lasting peace, according to a new survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
The results come as Ukraine prepares for another round of negotiations with international partners in the coming days aimed at finding an end to the war with Russia. While Kyiv has signaled readiness to resume discussions, public opinion appears far more cautious about their potential outcome.
71% don't believe talks will succeed – and the number hasn't moved
The poll, conducted between March 1–8, found that 71% of respondents do not expect the talks to produce sustainable peace, while only 25% said they believe they could succeed. The findings suggest public skepticism has remained stable since the start of 2026, with little sign of growing optimism despite renewed diplomatic efforts.
According to KIIS, distrust toward Russia is the main driver of this skepticism. In earlier polling cited in the report, more than half of those doubtful about negotiations said they see no indication that Moscow is willing to end the war. Others pointed to the long history of unsuccessful talks, as well as limited confidence in Western support to secure a lasting settlement.
62% reject withdrawing from Donetsk Oblast – even for Western guarantees
At the same time, Ukrainians continue to show strong resistance to territorial concessions as part of any peace deal. The survey found that 62% consider it completely unacceptable to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the parts of Donetsk Oblast still under Kyiv’s control in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and Europe. Around 33% said they could accept such a deal, though most described it as a difficult compromise.
The data suggests that even among those open to concessions, support is often conditional and tied to the strength and credibility of security guarantees. KIIS notes that backing for such proposals drops significantly when guarantees are seen as limited or lacking concrete military commitments.
War endurance still high – but declining
The poll also highlights a gradual shift in public endurance as the war enters its fifth year. While 54% of respondents said they are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary, this figure has declined from earlier in 2026. Meanwhile, 28% said they are only prepared to endure the war for a shorter period of several months to half a year.
Analysts at KIIS say the decline is most visible among those who had previously been more open to compromise solutions, suggesting that unmet expectations from negotiations may be contributing to growing fatigue. At the same time, those firmly opposed to territorial concessions have remained relatively consistent in their willingness to continue the war.
Distrust of Russia and doubts about partners drive the mood
In comments accompanying the survey, KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi said Ukrainians remain broadly pessimistic about the current negotiations, driven primarily by distrust of Russia but also by concerns about the reliability of international partners.
The findings point to a complex public mood: while many Ukrainians support diplomatic efforts in principle, a clear majority do not see them as a realistic path to peace under current conditions.
