Ukraine's military finances are in better shape than previously feared, with Kyiv able to sustain operations until early May, four people familiar with the country's finances told Politico. The assessment eases immediate pressure on European partners scrambling to unlock a blocked €90 billion aid package.
The relief follows the International Monetary Fund's approval of an $8.1 billion loan last month. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko confirmed on March 3 that Ukraine had received the first tranche of $1.5 billion, earmarked for "priority budget expenditures and macroeconomic stability." The IMF, for its part, has set an end-of-March deadline for Ukraine to adopt a series of tax changes as a condition of the new program.
The cushion matters because Ukraine's budget shortfall this year stands at a minimum of $50 billion. Officials had previously warned that Kyiv could begin running dry by the end of March.
The extra time is now squarely political. EU leaders agreed in mid-December on a €90 billion package for Ukraine, but Hungary blocked it, accusing Kyiv of deliberately stalling repairs to the Druzhba pipeline — damaged in a late-January drone strike — to influence elections that could unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Ukraine has rejected the charge, citing the scale of the damage. EU officials are working to break the deadlock before next week's leaders' summit.
With money now available until May, Brussels has a clearer window — including past Hungary's parliamentary elections in April — to resolve the impasse. Separately, Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen told European peers Tuesday that the Netherlands has budgeted €3.5 billion a year in bilateral support for Kyiv through 2029, according to two diplomats who spoke to Politico.
