The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver on 6 March for Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude on tankers at sea—oil that piled up offshore as Washington spent the past year pressuring New Delhi to stop buying it. According to the US Treasury, the crude can be unloaded in India between 5 March and 4 April.
Why the stranded oil complicates the picture
Scott Bessent wrote on X that the measure “will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.” By January 2026, roughly 140 million barrels of Russian crude—about $3 billion worth—were floating offshore as Indian demand collapsed.
Moving that cargo shifts a real problem off Moscow’s books, even if no new sales follow.
Russia cannot simply stop pumping: onshore storage is full, so Moscow has been using pipelines and shadow-fleet tankers as overflow. Moving that cargo shifts a real problem off Moscow’s books, even if no new sales follow.
How the oil got there
January 2025 sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet were the first move. Washington then imposed tariffs on Indian goods—reaching 50% by autumn—explicitly to punish New Delhi for buying Russian crude.
The EU–India trade deal, signed in January, gave New Delhi a structural reason to keep diversifying.
In February 2026, the White House rescinded those tariffs after Trump claimed India had committed to halt Russian oil purchases entirely. New Delhi made no public announcement of any such commitment.
India’s Russian crude imports fell from 1.75 million barrels per day in August 2025 to 1.12 million in January 2026—a 36% drop. The EU–India trade deal, signed in January, gave New Delhi a structural reason to keep diversifying. Russian tankers loaded up and had nowhere to go.
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Washington’s price for the waiver
“India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil,” Bessent wrote on X. The White House directed US officials to monitor Indian oil procurement and recommend reinstating tariffs if purchases from Russia resume—turning the waiver into a 30-day test as much as a relief measure.
Oil and gas revenues fell to 23% of Russia’s federal budget in 2025, down from nearly half of all revenues a decade ago.
For Moscow, the waiver clears crude stranded at sea without reopening the tap. Oil and gas revenues fell to roughly 23% of Russia’s federal budget in 2025—still the single largest revenue source, but down from nearly half of all revenues a decade ago.
In late 2024, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicted the share would fall to “22% next year”—it did—and warned it would decline further. Whether this is a one-time clearance or the beginning of softer enforcement on Russian energy, the answer comes on 4 April.
