Ukraine’s Flamingo missiles strike Russia twice in one week; rocket arsenal hit

Ukrainian cruise missiles lit up a Russian arsenal overnight near the town of Kotluban on 12 February, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced. The identity of these missiles: none other than the controversial FP-5 Flamingo. 

“This arsenal is one of the largest ammunition storage sites for the Russian army,” the General Staff wrote in its announcement. 

This is the second time that the Ukrainian military has openly acknowledged using Flamingo missiles in attacks on Russia. The first time was a week ago, when Ukrainian forces launched at least four FP-5s at a nearby Russian missile base in Kapustin Yar, where Russia assembles and tests the nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile.

The Kapustin Yar attack proved disappointing. Observers pointed out the relatively minor damage inflicted by the Flamingos, despite their massive warheads. This, plus the rarity of the missile’s use so far, and the controversy surrounding its developer, Fire Point, suggested to many that the FP-5 is more of a propaganda tool than a mainstay deep strike weapon.

However, this latest attack may suggest that the Flamingo is being improved and the Ukrainian military is getting better at flying it through Russian defenses, according to Ukrainian military analysis site Defense Express.

Powerful explosions at Russian rocket artillery arsenal

The Kotluban arsenal is based in Russia’s Volgograd Oblast, some 300 kilometers away from the nearest Ukrainian border and 120 kilometers from Kapustin Yar.

According to the General Staff, powerful explosions, followed by secondary detonations were recorded at the arsenal, which belongs to Russia’s Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU). This body is responsible for procuring and equipping the Russian armed forces, and operates most of Russia’s military arsenals. 

Open source monitors claimed that the attack targeted facilities where Russia's rocket artillery was being stored and modernized. Purported videos of the strike posted on open source channels showed flashes illuminating the night sky.

Local residents reported loud explosions and a fire in the arsenal’s vicinity — the local Russian governor ordered an evacuation of Kotluban.

Long range, big warhead, massive hype

The Flamingo was revealed to the world in August, with much fanfare. It promised to strengthen Ukraine’s deep strike arsenal, held back by the limited payloads that long-range drones can carry.

The FP-5 is a chonker of a missile, with a reported takeoff weight of 6,000 kilograms, propelled by a turbofan engine that’s used in manned aircraft.

The developer, Ukrainian company Fire Point, claimed that the missile has a maximum range of 3,000 kilometers, a top speed of 1,500 kilometers per hour and can carry a payload of over 1,000 kilograms.

However, to keep costs down, the Flamingo lacks modern cruise missiles’ stealth features and its massive engine is top-mounted. These factors make it "highly visible" to enemy radar, wrote Oslo University missile expert Fabian Hoffmann. 

This means that on paper, Russia’s air defenses should have no problem taking it down. 

Doubt and controversy

Fire Point had stated it was producing about one missile per day and planned to scale that amount sevenfold over the coming months. 

But this claim quickly came under scrutiny, thanks to the tentative pace of deployment, vague language from the Ukrainian government, and a probe by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) over possible inflated delivery projections or component costs, according to a Kyiv Independent investigation. The company has landed in further controversies since then.

Fire Point has since partnered with Denmark to launch joint manufacturing lines, but a question continued to hang over the pace of production. As recently as November, Ukraine’s defense officials referred to the missile as “experimental,” possibly implying that it wasn’t ready for mass deployment.  

As of last week, available evidence showed just four Flamingo raids involving potentially just nine missiles, resulting in damage to two targets. The previous attack may have taken place in October, with Flamingos used in combination with the shorter-range R-360 Neptune cruise missiles to attack targets in Crimea. 

Some observers used harsher language. Observer Thorkill, who closely monitors social media for evidence of Flamingo usage, described the missile as a "a certain marketing-propaganda hoax."

Can the Flamingo redeem itself?

However, things may not be that cut and dry, Defense Express wrote. 

“The second official announcement of the FP-5 Flamingo’s effective use not only speaks to the frequency of the attacks, but that this cruise missile was ‘trained’ to fly and effectively break through Russian air defense and electronic warfare systems.” 

Both the missile base at Kapustin Yar and the GRAU arsenal near Kotluban are supposed to be protected “quite tightly” by both air defense and EW. 

Defense Express also noted that these sites are just 120 kilometers apart. Russia does not appear to have beefed up air defenses in the area after the previous strike. 

The most recent attack might add credence to Fire Point’s announcement that they added the capability for low-altitude flight to the huge missile.

According to Defense Express, it’s possible that such an upgrade may involve the TERCOM system. This is a missile navigation package that compares readings from an onboard radar altimeter to a terrain contour map, with the aim of improving accuracy.

The advantages of TERCOM are twofold. First, it reduces a missile’s reliance on satellites, which improves resistance to electronic warfare. 

And second, “the lower the flight altitude of a cruise missile, the better it penetrates air defenses, because it hides from radar beyond the horizon.”