Russian strikes on Ukrainian seaports periodically slash monthly agricultural exports by 20-30%, Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskyi told RBC-Ukraine, leaving up to 10 million tons of grain sitting in storage without buyers.
After Ukrainian naval drones forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to relocate from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Ukraine established a maritime corridor.
The attacks represent Moscow’s adaptation to a battlefield reality it didn’t choose. After Ukrainian naval drones forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to relocate from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Ukraine established a maritime corridor along the Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines that now carries over 90% of all agricultural exports. Russia lost control of the sea. So it targets what it can still reach—the ports on shore.
Billions at stake
“This is not a critical volume for the market, but it is economically significant because these are products for which producers and the state did not receive foreign exchange earnings,” Vysotskyi said of the accumulated grain reserves.
The numbers behind that understatement are substantial. Ukraine exported $22.6 billion in agricultural products in 2025—roughly 56% of the country’s total exports. Agriculture has become the backbone of Ukraine’s wartime economy.
“The maritime corridor remains a key route from an economic perspective: it transports the largest volumes and is the most cost-effective for exporting agricultural products.”
Every month that port strikes cut shipments by a quarter, hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign currency revenue disappear—money that would otherwise fund both civilian needs and defense. The National Bank of Ukraine projects a further $1 billion drop in export earnings in the first quarter of 2026 alone, which could force a costly reorientation toward European rail.
The maritime corridor remains irreplaceable. Rail handles just 7-8% of exports, with road transport covering the rest. “The maritime corridor remains a key route from an economic perspective: it transports the largest volumes and is the most cost-effective for exporting agricultural products,” Vysotskyi said.
From blockade to bombardment
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The shift from sea blockade to port bombardment marks a broader pattern in Russia’s campaign to strangle Ukraine economically. Vice Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba reported in late 2025 that Russia had launched 90 combined missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports that year, systematically targeting port infrastructure and shipping.
Grain elevators, oil terminals, port cranes—targets that don’t shift the front line but bleed revenue.
The logic is straightforward: if you can’t blockade the corridor, destroy what sits at either end of it. Grain elevators, oil terminals, port cranes—targets that don’t shift the front line but bleed revenue from a country that depends on every dollar earned abroad.
Ukraine harvested 61.8 million tons of grain in 2025, up from 56 million the year before, driven largely by expanded corn planting as cheaper Black Sea logistics made exports viable again. The same corridor that made the harvest worth growing also made the ports worth bombing.
