Russia did not stop its aggression during the so-called “energy ceasefire" with Ukraine. Instead, the occupiers used the pause to conduct additional reconnaissance of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, likely to concentrate more forces and assets for a subsequent strike, says Andrii Ryzhenko, a retired Captain 1st Rank of the Ukrainian Navy, per Kyiv 24.
On that day, Russia carried out a combined air strike on Ukraine’s energy facilities, using a total of 562 aerial attack assets, including missiles of various types and attack drones.
Russia was "updating its target map"
According to Ryzhenko, during the declared ceasefire, the Russians systematically checked which facilities in Ukrainian cities remained operational, using various reconnaissance methods.
“Not only drones. I think they used other means to update the situation and, indeed, possibly to concentrate more forces and assets for this strike,” the Ukrainian captain notes.
He also emphasizes that during the latest attack, Russia actively used supersonic and hypersonic missiles, betting that Ukrainian air defense would be unable to intercept them.
“In order to disable these energy facilities for a long time,” Ryzhenko explains.
Thus, this was not a one-off strike but an attempt to inflict long-term, systemic damage that would prevent the rapid restoration of power.
Second act after the talks: after a diplomatic pause
Meanwhile, the monitoring channel YeRadar reports that Russia is planning a second phase of a massive missile-and-drone attack on Ukraine following the strike on Kyiv.
According to available information, the attack is expected after the conclusion of trilateral talks, in the period between 7 and 10 February. This once again confirms the Kremlin’s tactic: combining diplomacy with terror, using negotiations as cover for military preparation.
As of today, the following activity of Russia’s strategic aviation has been recorded:
- At least 3 armed Tu-95MS aircraft at the Olenya and Dyagilevo airbases
- 4 Tu-160 bombers stationed in the Far East
- 1 Tu-95MS redeployed from Olenya to Engels airbase for loading cruise missiles
In addition, at the naval base in Novorossiysk, there are 2 surface vessels and 1 submarine armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, which were ready for use on the night of 3 February but were not launched. Its total potential salvo is up to 22 Kalibr missiles.
Russia’s strategy remains unchanged: a ceasefire is not a path to de-escalation, but a pause for reconnaissance, missile stockpiling, and preparation for the next strike.
That is why any agreements without real monitoring and deterrence mechanisms only increase the risks for Ukraine’s civilian population.
