The security guarantees developed so far lack real force and are unable to restrain Russia, says Oleh Shamshur, former Ukrainian ambassador to the US. For this reason, they are not being made public, UkrInform reports.
Shamshur adds that he is not convinced by “those issues that are supposedly 100% agreed upon at the moment.”
Paper guarantees "won't scare Putin"
“They do not convince the majority of Ukrainians because all these guarantees exist only on paper. It is a paper tiger that will not frighten Putin,” Shamshur says.
It is no coincidence that the world does not know in what final form these guarantees will be signed.
“I believe the reason we hear nothing is precisely that these are the guarantees we already know about, which are not real guarantees,” he believes.
Shamshur stresses that the Ukrainian delegation must clearly communicate this during negotiations, “so that our partners understand the real value of these guarantees.”
Everything is still being decided on the front lines
Commenting on the next round of trilateral talks scheduled for 1 February, Shamshur suggests that “each side is pursuing its own objectives” through the negotiations:
- For US Envoy Steve Vitkoff, and by extension US President Donald Trump, it is important to show that progress is being made on implementing Trump’s peace plan.
- For the Russian side, the goal is likely to avoid angering Trump, so they make tactical “moves.”
- For the Ukrainian side, it is to demonstrate that efforts are being made.
According to Shamshur, this “creates the appearance of negotiations” because what is being discussed are “tasks that are far from urgent compared with the immediate problems on the ground.”
“In other words, expecting anything substantial to come out of this is unlikely,” he claims.
Shamshur adds that “everything is decided on the front lines,” and if there were increased pressure on Russia and its military machine, then one "could expect at least minimal progress in Russia’s position.”
