- Ukrainian defenses in Kostiantynivka held as reported Russian infiltrators were apparently defeated last week
- But the visible fighting southwest of the city may be a sideshow
- Analysts warn Russian reconnaissance groups are probing west of Illinivka, toward a possible gap in Ukrainian lines
- If they break through, they could threaten Kostiantynivka's main supply route
A week after one respected mapper reported Russian troops deep inside the westernmost districts of Kostiantynivka, there's finally some evidence of the escalating battle in that critical sector.
The good news is that it seems Ukrainian defenses held last week.
The bad news is that the visible fighting—artillery and drones trading fire between Illinivka and Berestok—may be a sideshow.
"Much indicates that there is a gap in the Ukrainian defensive lines," observer Thorkill warned on Monday. Russian Diversionary Reconnaissance Groups, or DRGs, are bypassing Illinivka from the west, probing toward the H-20 highway—Kostiantynivka's main supply line.
If enough Russians slip through and consolidate, they could begin strangling the town's defenders.
The Pokrovsk playbook
The Russian Center Group of Forces is trying to do in Kostiantynivka—in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast—what it recently did in neighboring Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk: infiltrate the city with DRGs and other small groups of infantry while also encircling it from the flanks.
The infiltrators destabilize the Ukrainian defense; the encirclement strangles it.
Mapper Playfra was the first to report the possible presence of Russian infiltrators in Berestovyi district, on the western edge of Kostiantynivka, last week. "It is unclear if they were subsequently eliminated or not, but the fact that they were present there clearly hints at Russian intentions in this sector," Playfra wrote on 13 January.
Previously, the Russians had tried to sneak into Kostiantynivka along its eastern edge in the vicinity of Santurynivka district, but Ukrainian defenses held. So the Russians pivoted west. "They're attempting to find another way into the city," Playfra reported.
The real threat
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It's likely the Berestovyi infiltrators were eliminated—assuming they actually ever penetrated that far. The most recent confirmed clashes along the southwestern edge of Kostiantynivka occurred south of the town, between the villages of Illinivka in the north and Berestok in the south.
The Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment or nearby units fired a Msta-B 152-mm howitzer and launched Vandal drones at Ukrainian positions in Illinivka; the Ukrainian 111th Territorial Defense Brigade and adjacent units—which include the 93rd and 156th Mechanized Brigades—fought back with their own drones and artillery, blasting Russian positions in Berestok.
But that back-and-forth bombardment may not be the main event. "As part of their offensive actions, Russian forces are also sending numerous DRG groups to the north, bypassing Illinivka from the west," Thorkill warned.
The real action, in other words, could be playing out north of Illinivka, in the vicinity of the so-called "First Pond" that lies between Illinivka and Kostiantynivka. If enough Russians can slip through those purported gaps and consolidate in buildings and basements, they could create a base of operations for further attacks to the north.
The worst-case scenario is the same as it was last week, when Playfra first began warning of possible Russian infiltrations in and around Kostiantynivka. The Russians clearly aim to cut across the H-20 road, which threads into Kostiantynivka 4 km north of Illinivka.
It's the main supply route for Ukrainian forces defending Kostiantynivka. Severing it could begin the slow process of starving out the town's defenders.
