Ukraine may achieve a turning point in the war in its favor in 2026. To do so, it must fully leverage the potential of the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration, into which Russia may attempt to push its offensive, according to Yevhen Dykyi, a former company commander of the Aidar Battalion, Radio NV reports.
The defense of Donetsk Oblast makes sense only alongside active work in the rear. From Ukraine, this will require mobilization, governance reforms, and strikes on Russian territory. From partners—continued weapons supplies.
Dykyi explains that if Russian forces move on Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, they could spend all of 2026 advancing within the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration at enormous cost, only to become bogged down there.
"Kostiantynivka becomes a new focal point of a major battle"
Dykyi notes that Kostiantynivka was previously considered a strong rear hub, but today the enemy is already about 10 kilometers from the city.
It is within range of Russian artillery, and drones are flying between residential buildings.
“Given the width of the kill zone and the current distance to the front line, I would state as a fact that the battles for Kostiantynivka are beginning,” he says.
According to him, the Moscow military has effectively acknowledged that it cannot break through along the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad line.
The situation there resembles Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces entered back in May 2024 but have been unable to make significant progress throughout 2024 and 2025.
“I would personally predict that their next main axis of advance will be Kostiantynivka. If they manage to break through there, then it will be Druzhkivka, and after that Kramatorsk and Sloviansk,” Dykyi adds.
"A year bought at the price of destroyed cities"
He believes that the battle for Kostiantynivka is beginning, but with competent defensive organization, the major battle for the entire agglomeration, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, could become not only the central event but also tie down the Russian army for virtually all of 2026.
“Throughout 2026, they could advance slowly, meter by meter, with enormous losses within this agglomeration. We can and, in my view, must hold it. There are quite strong defensive positions there,” Dykyi believes.
At the same time, he acknowledges that these cities may have to be sacrificed, as fighting will occur for every meter, and the enemy destroys everything in its path.
“We must recognize that we will be fighting there for the entire year, and in the course of these battles, the agglomeration will become completely unfit for life. But by doing so, we can gain almost a full year,” he adds.
According to Dykyi, it is crucial to use this time for mobilization, reorganization of the army's command and control, mass production of everything that is lacking, and a powerful campaign of deep‑strike attacks against Russia.
He emphasizes that if work in the rear is effective and deep‑strike attacks continue against Russia, these settlements in Donetsk Oblast could become the last “Pyrrhic victory” for Russia in this war.
