If the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran, allied with Moscow, were to collapse, the global oil market would face another powerful factor pushing barrel prices downward. This process could weaken Russia's ability to wage war, says oil and gas market analyst Mykhailo Krutykhin, NV reports.
Iran has sold weapons to Russia worth nearly $3 billion for use in the war against Ukraine. The package included hundreds of short-range Fath-360 ballistic missiles, nearly 500 other short-range ballistic missiles, and approximately 200 surface-to-air missiles for air defense systems, as per Bloomberg.
For Moscow, which is already forced to sell its oil at deep discounts and operates on the edge of profitability, this could amount to a serious economic blow. Such a scenario would mean the loss of yet another ally and a significant deterioration of its economic outlook.
Russian oil under double pressure: discounts and unprofitable fields
According to the expert, current oil prices already make the development of new Russian oil fields economically unviable, while Russia’s exports are sustained solely by selling crude at significant discounts.
The emergence on the market of a potentially more open Iran, capable of ramping up exports, would intensify competition and further reduce Kremlin war revenues, which are largely financed by oil and gas income.
Protests in Iran enter a political phase
Krutykhin notes that protests in Iran have gone far beyond social discontent and are taking on a clearly political character. Among the main slogans increasingly heard are calls for the return of the Pahlavi shah dynasty, overthrown during the Islamic Revolution, says Krutykhin.
According to him, protesters already control several cities, indicating a significant weakening of the central government’s position.
The threat to Tehran becomes real: Kurdish regions and strategic facilities under pressure
The analyst explains that two cities with predominantly Kurdish populations in Ilam Province have been under protesters’ control for several days. There are also alarming signals regarding the possible seizure of Karaj, a city just 120 km from Tehran.
Karaj is critically important for the country’s energy infrastructure, as it serves as a key energy hub and is home to a strategic dam and reservoir.
The US, Israel, and a signal via Putin
Despite the threatening dynamics, Iranian security forces have so far refrained from the mass use of firearms as they could have. In Krutykhin’s view, this may be due to several factors.
These include threats by US President Donald Trump to respond harshly in the event of a bloody crackdown on the protests, as well as a message from Israel, which, according to available information, may have been conveyed to Iran’s leadership via Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Nevertheless, as a result of the brutal suppression of two weeks of protests in Iran, about 2,000 people have already been killed, Reuters reports, citing an Iranian official.
This is the first time the country’s authorities have acknowledged such a high number of deaths resulting from intense repression following two weeks of nationwide protests.
Ukraine's official position: support for protesters in Iran
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced support for protesters in Iran and called on world leaders and international organizations to help change the regime there. He has described the current protests as “a clear sign” that the situation will not become easier for Russia.
“Every decent person on this planet sincerely wishes that the people of Iran would finally be freed from the current regime, which has brought so much evil to Ukraine and other countries,” Zelenskyy claimed.
