It works in Latvia. It could work for Ukraine. Expert proposes NATO’s EFP model for post-war security

NATO DRAGON-24 military exercise in Korzeniewo
Soldiers walk past NATO members country flags during the DRAGON-24 NATO military defense drills on 4 March 2024 in Korzeniewo, Poland. Credit: Omar Marques /Anadolu
It works in Latvia. It could work for Ukraine. Expert proposes NATO’s EFP model for post-war security

Western allies should consider a model already used for German brigades in Latvia to protect Ukraine from the potential Russia's war after any peace plan is signed.

Gustav Gressel, a lecturer at the Austrian National Defence Academy, says this is the only effective strategy for Kyiv, known as the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP), when allies are interwined with one another's military structures, UkrInform reports. 

This format would provide Ukraine with a level of security guarantees close to NATO membership, creating a significant deterrent effect for the Kremlin. 

“This could be a structure similar to the EFP. European forces would be integrated into Ukrainian structures just as the German brigade in Lithuania is integrated into the Lithuanian army and defense planning system,” he said.

Permanent deployment of allied forces: deterrence

Gressel emphasized that this is not about a separate international mission, but about deterrence through the permanent presence of allied forces.

“This is not a mission per se, but deterrence through permanent deployment,” the expert explained.

According to him, this format provides Ukraine with a level of security guarantees comparable to NATO membership, creating a significant deterrent effect for the Kremlin.

“Then Ukraine would be de facto a member of NATO, although not formally, de jure, not yet,” Gressel added.

He also stressed that a classic peacekeeping mission along the contact line is unrealistic due to the shortage of forces in Europe and the impossibility of physically monitoring a 1,200-kilometer border.

“We cannot militarily secure a 1,200-kilometer-long border,” the expert noted.

Limitations of international organizations and the need for a ceasefire

Gressel pointed out that scenarios for typical UN- or OSCE-based peacekeeping missions are unacceptable because Russia has veto power in these organizations.

“In the UN and OSCE, Russia has veto power, so we can forget about them,” he said.

At the same time, he warned that any deployment of multinational forces would only be possible after a ceasefire is achieved.

“First and foremost, there must be a ceasefire. We are still very far from that,” Gressel emphasized.

According to him, the only way to enhance Ukraine's defensive potential is through the permanent integration of allied forces into its defense system, which would strengthen the morale of Ukrainian troops and signal to the Kremlin the high risks of aggression.

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