Russia raises the stakes again after the Paris Declaration. On 8 January, Moscow used the medium-range missile "Oreshnik" with a kinetic warhead for its terrorist attack on Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military-analytical outlet Defense Express.
Foreign presence in Ukraine for Russia is "intervention"
After the meeting in Paris, Moscow stated that any military contingent in Ukraine would be regarded as a foreign intervention. This position indicates that the Kremlin continues to view Ukrainian territory as "its own" and opposes any form of support for Kyiv.
The day after the Paris talks, the Kremlin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev met with Steve Witkoff, Axios reports. During the meeting, a plan was conveyed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the White House expected a clear response from the Kremlin.
Shortly thereafter, Russia launched the nuclear-capable "Oreshnik" missile at the Ukrainian region of Lviv bordering Poland, making it a demonstrative act of intimidation toward the West.
Why the non-nuclear "Oreshnik" raises doubts
Despite the obvious political signal, the combat effectiveness of the missile in this configuration raises questions, Defense Express notes.
In this case, Russia used a non-nuclear kinetic warhead, essentially a solid projectile without explosives, relying solely on speed to damage the target.
According to the analysts, the "Oreshnik" warhead consists of six independently guided reentry vehicles, each weighing about 150 kg.
Calculations suggest that the kinetic impact of one such unit is roughly equivalent to 50 kg of TNT. For comparison, Russia's Kh-22 missile has a nearly 1000 kg warhead, while the Iskander-M has one of nearly 500 kg.
Why is the missile less effective than a conventional aerial bomb
The experts emphasize that kinetic warheads lack blast and fragmentation effects typical of high-explosive munitions. As a result, the effectiveness of a single "Oreshnik" warhead is lower than that of a standard FAB-100 aerial bomb.
Accuracy issues: another weakness of the "Oreshnik"
Accuracy is another concern. Guidance occurs in space, at an altitude of several hundred kilometers. Under such conditions, accuracy is around 100 meters at best.
Given the Soviet-era technologies underlying the system, real accuracy may reach 300–500 meters.
