Belarus says it’s working with Russia to put nuclear warheads on its 290-kilometer range Polonez missile systems.
European cities within reach of these missiles include the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Poland’s capital Warsaw, Lithuania’s capital Vilnius, and Latvia’s capital Riga. A corner of Estonia falls into range as well.
The announcement appears to be part of Russia’s continuous strategy of nuclear blackmail, which has intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
Russia has already transferred Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles into Belarusian territory — these weapons are able to mount both conventional and nuclear warheads. A conventional Oreshnik missile was used to attack the city of Dnipro in November 2024.
However, these actions don't mean that the Kremlin will have the guts to hit the launch button. Most of Russia’s “red lines” have already been crossed and it’s done nothing to back up its nuclear threats with actions.
Adaptation of a Chinese weapon
Russian specialists are reportedly already developing this nuclear ordinance for the Polonez, the head of the defense committee of the Belarusian parliament, Gennady Lepeshko, told Russian media outlets.
Lepeshko said that both countries already worked out the algorithms on the use of nuclear weapons during the latest Zapad 2025 joint military exercises. Russia and Belarus are also discussing delivery of nuclear ordinance from aircraft.
The Polonez appears to be a Belarusian adaptation of a Chinese-made GATSS launcher, mounted on a homegrown M3KT-7930 Astrologer chassis.
It was first demonstrated in Minsk in 2015, completing trials the following year. It is able to launch A200 missiles, which can go 200 kilometers, and A300 missiles, which can go 290 kilometers.
Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka has already threatened to bombard Kyiv with these weapons in 2022.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine
In 2024, Russia said it will make changes to its nuclear doctrine in response to what it called Western escalation, in regards to the invasion.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin decreed in 2020 that Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy, or if a conventional attack “threatens the existence of the state.”
Putin revised this decree in November 2024, widening the range of reasons that could trigger a nuclear response.
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Per the new doctrine, Russia "reserves the right" to use nukes to respond to a conventional attack that creates a "critical threat" to its sovereignty, or that of Belarus.
Russia now says it can use nuclear weapons if there is “reliable information on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and/or its allies” or “the use by the enemy of nuclear or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies, on military formations and/or facilities of the Russian Federation located outside its territory.”
Boy who cried wolf
Nuclear threats are nothing new, and Russian officials have already made dozens of them.
Russia has failed to escalate in response to “red lines” like NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine, attacks on Russia's Black Sea fleet, provision of jet fighters and main battle tanks to Kyiv, and attacks on Russian infrastructure.
Moscow has even failed to escalate when Ukraine “violated its territorial integrity” by invading Kursk Region.
Even so, this rattling of the atomic saber has served its role in raising the Western allies' caution and reluctance to help arm Ukraine.
