The possibility of a ceasefire after February will directly depend on how Ukraine survives the two harsh winter months, says Dmytro Kuleba, a former foreign minister. According to him, any realistic contours of a ceasefire in 2026 may emerge only under one crucial condition: Ukraine must retain its will to continue resisting.
He adds that Russia must come to realize that it is unable to break Ukrainians, even after deliberately creating devastating living conditions during winter.
Zero chances until the end of winter: Why a quick ceasefire is unlikely
Kuleba says that, in his view, no ceasefire will be implemented before the end of winter. He believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine will not end in 2026, and that the coming months will be dominated not by genuine negotiations, but by an imitation of diplomacy.
“There will be many movements, statements, summits, and claims that an agreement is ‘almost reached,’ but no actual deal will happen,” Kuleba emphasizes.
According to him, the reasons for this lie neither in Ukraine nor in the West but only in Russia's willingness to end its aggression.
Winter as a weapon: Why Russia targets Ukraine’s energy system
Kuleba is convinced that Russia is deliberately leveraging winter by striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in an effort to undermine civilian resilience.
“They are not destroying our energy system by accident. They are deliberately finishing it off to turn our lives into hell. Their goal is to break Ukrainians’ will to resist during winter,” he claims.
At the same time, Moscow is seeking to make as much progress as possible on the battlefield in order to approach any future negotiations from a position of strength.
For this reason, Kuleba believes that serious discussions about a possible “deal” may begin only toward the end of February.
When the war could truly stop: Kuleba’s formula
According to Kuleba, the decisive turning point will not come from a signed document or formal agreement, but from Russia’s forced acceptance of reality.
“The war will end when Putin accepts the fact that Ukraine is an impossible task for him,” Kuleba stresses.
This does not refer solely to military defeat, but to the acknowledgment that Ukraine cannot be returned under Russian control and that Ukraine is, and will remain:
- independent
- sovereign
- European
These three principles, Kuleba concluded, define Ukraine’s victory.
