Russia is currently avoiding direct provocations near the Baltics and NATO borders, a shift driven by Western and NATO responses, according to Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin, speaking to ERR. Russia's shadow fleet prioritizes maintaining freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea to secure oil revenues, Rosin said, with other interests subordinated to that goal.
Russia pulls back from Baltic provocations — but only for now
Speaking to ERR, Rosin emphasized that the current state of Russia's restraint is not automatic but a result of continued responses, and it remains Estonia’s responsibility to ensure the situation does not change.
Rosin also pointed to the impact of NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission. Since its launch, there have been no new cable-related incidents in the region. He warned, however, that future incidents remain possible because military activity remains high and the war in Ukraine is ongoing. Russia conducted maneuvers near the borders of Estonia, Latvia, and Finland in September as part of a broader operation.
Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” restraint in the Baltic region is closely tied to its economic interests, Rosin added. The main priority for the fleet — tankers operating under unclear ownership to bypass sanctions — is maintaining uninterrupted movement through the Baltic Sea to secure oil revenues. Other provocations, including sabotage, are subordinated to that goal.
War in Ukraine still drives Russian maneuvers near the Baltics
While Russia’s behavior has shifted, military drills and exercises continue across NATO’s eastern borders. A large-scale Russian internal security exercise in September caused heightened activity near the borders of Estonia and its neighbors, tied to Russian fears of Ukrainian attacks, Rosin said. Estonia reacted strongly to provocations, including a 12-minute airspace violation and the Saatse Boot incident, which led to new road construction. He noted Russia continues recruiting assets in Estonia. Physical sabotage, unlike routine spying, likely has Kremlin approval and targets Ukraine’s stability and supply routes.
Russia's covert operations in Europe — including in Poland and Romania — are not always cleanly executed. Rosin questioned whether certain disruptions, such as unpredictable plane movements in Lithuania, were truly "hybrid" attacks or instead linked to smuggling, organized crime or coincidence. Still, he rejected the term “hybrid,” calling it misleading and too soft. If it’s sabotage, it should be called sabotage, he argued — possibly even state-sponsored terrorism.
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Economic pressure is working, but Kremlin influence efforts continue
Rosin said Russia is trying to slow Europe’s rearmament through calming messages and political influence, including Putin’s proposal to pledge legally not to attack Europe. Europe could still win the arms race, he said, but a Ukraine peace without a clear Russian defeat would raise risks, allowing Russia to redeploy forces to Kaliningrad and the Finnish and Norwegian borders. Sanctions are steadily weakening Russia’s war economy.
"We have to invest in our defense," he concluded. "Our task is to keep it that way, so that if they respect [NATO] today, they will also respect it a year from now and three, five or 10 years into the future."
