Russia's intensifying strikes on southern Odesa Oblast target more than just Bessarabia's land connection to Ukraine—Moscow seeks to cut the country off from the sea entirely, weakening it economically and militarily, according to Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of military security programs at the Strategy XXI Center.
Russia's systematic attacks on southern Ukraine's bridges and ports aim to strangle the country's economy by severing its Black Sea access—cutting agricultural exports and fuel imports that sustain both civilian life and the war effort. Despite 90 combined strikes in 2025, the strategy has yet to succeed.
Why Russia is targeting Ukraine's southern logistics
Ukrainian logistics split along two axes:
- Western border: passenger flows, military aid deliveries, and cargo to and from Moldova and Romania
- Southern corridor: economic activity—agricultural exports and fuel imports through Odesa and Danube ports
"Through the ports of Odesa and the Danube flows our agricultural exports, and they are linked to fuel and lubricant supplies. Land routes move cargo to and from Moldova and Romania," Lakiichuk told LIGA.net.
Destroying these connections would hurt Ukraine on both fronts—economically through lost trade, militarily through severed supply lines.
Zatoka bridge still functions despite months of Russian bombing
The timing of this escalation is no accident. Oleksiy Melnyk, a military expert at the Razumkov Centre, connects the surge in attacks to ongoing Ukraine-US negotiations.
"This is maximum pressure, raising stakes and escalation," Melnyk said. But he noted that despite months of intensive bombing, even the Russians acknowledge the Zatoka bridge over the Dniester estuary still functions. The damage is enormous, yet Russia has not achieved its objective.
Mayaky bridge attack (18 December 2025):
- Critical link between Odesa and Ukraine's Danube ports
- Destruction could deprive Ukraine of 60% of its fuel imports
90 combined strikes on Ukrainian ports in 2025
Vice Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba reported that Russia has launched 90 combined missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports in 2025, systematically targeting maritime logistics and export capacity.
Port Pivdennyi damage (20-22 December 2025):
- 35.55 million tons of cargo handled in 2024—Ukraine's busiest port
- Fuel storage damaged
- 30 containers of flour and vegetable oil set ablaze
- Oil spill killed seabirds now washing up on Odesa beaches
The ecological toll compounds the economic damage. Oil-like slicks now cover Odesa beaches at Otrada, Lanzheron, and Delfin, with the Odesa Zoo taking in surviving birds for rehabilitation.
Can Russia's attrition campaign succeed?
Russia's campaign follows a clear logic: if you cannot occupy a country, strangle it. Cut the exports that fund the war effort. Sever the fuel imports that keep it running. Force civilians to freeze and economies to collapse.
But nearly three years into this strategy, Ukraine's ports still function. Ships still ride at anchor in Odesa's harbor. The bridges keep getting repaired. Russia expends missiles and drones that could hit military targets to strike grain elevators and vegetable oil terminals—targets that generate headlines but not battlefield advantage.
The question is whether Russia can sustain this campaign of attrition faster than Ukraine and its partners can adapt.
