Russia may move toward hybrid escalation on NATO’s eastern flank as early as 2026, says security expert Taras Zhovtenko, Channel 24 reports. According to his assessment, Moscow is not preparing a classic invasion.
The operation may appear to be a relatively limited force assault that would not formally resemble a full-scale war, yet it would create critical tension for the Alliance.
In 2025, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Head, Sergey Naryshkin, stated that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of a war between Moscow and NATO.
The Suwałki Corridor as the key target
The most likely direction of Russian action, the expert says, is the land corridor between Lithuania and Poland, known as the Suwałki Corridor.
At the same time, Zhovtenko emphasizes that:
- Russia does not plan long-term occupation of Lithuanian or Polish territory;
- a temporary establishment of checkpoints and control over key routes is possible;
- the operation would serve as a demonstration of force and blackmail of NATO.
As a formal justification, the Kremlin may cite an alleged threat of a blockade of the Kaliningrad region, a narrative Russian propaganda has been promoting with increasing intensity.
Kaliningrad as a prepared pretext for war
Zhovtenko stresses that the information groundwork for such a scenario is already in place. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly stated that a blockade of Kaliningrad would mean the start of a major war for Europe.
“In reality, the Russians already have a ready-made pretext. They will simply release Lukashenka, and he will show four directions from which the blockade of the Kaliningrad region was allegedly being prepared. Most likely, this will be precisely the Kaliningrad direction,” the expert noted.
Earlier, six sources familiar with US intelligence assessments said that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to seize all of Ukraine and ultimately restore control over parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet empire.
These include the three Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — as well as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Albania, and Slovakia.
