European security officials are now routinely delivering warnings that would have seemed unthinkable ten years ago: prepare for potential conflict with Russia, The Wall Street Journal reports.
According to the newspaper, barely a week passes without a European government, military or security leader issuing stark public alerts about the possibility of war with Russia. This represents a fundamental psychological transformation for a continent that rebuilt itself after two world wars around principles of harmony and shared economic prosperity.
Over the weekend, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz drew parallels between Russian President Vladimir Putin's approach in Ukraine and Hitler's 1938 seizure of Czechoslovakia's German-speaking Sudetenland. "If Ukraine falls, he won't stop. Just like the Sudetenland wasn't enough in 1938," Merz told a party conference on Saturday.
Days earlier, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that "conflict is at our door" and that "we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured." Rutte said Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. The head of the French military recently said France was at risk "because it is not prepared to accept the loss of its children."
The urgency has intensified as the Trump administration moves to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, according to WSJ. European capitals fear Ukraine will be pressured into accepting an imbalanced peace deal that emboldens Putin and leaves Ukraine exposed to future Russian aggression. A cease-fire would also free Russian military resources to focus on Europe, potentially enabling a future attack on NATO's eastern flank.
The warnings come alongside fears that a more isolationist Trump administration won't assist Europe if an attack occurs. The US National Security Strategy, published this month, states the US government will aim to stop war spreading in Europe and "re-establish strategic stability with Russia." For the first time in recent years, it makes no mention of Russia as an enemy.
The UK's annual threat assessment delivered on Monday struck a different tone. MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli warned that Russia will continue attempting to destabilize Europe "until Putin is forced to change his calculus."
The head of the UK's armed forces, Richard Knighton, said Monday that the situation "is more dangerous than I have known in my career" and that the British public must be prepared. "More families will know what sacrifice for our nation means," he said.
For Europe, the messaging marks a profound shift, WSJ notes. The European Union was designed, with US encouragement, to prevent the total war that devastated the continent during the 20th century. Its population has benefited from the peace dividend—when military spending was reduced after the Cold War and those funds redirected to social programs.
Politicians across the region have warned that instilling a martial mindset in the public, along with explaining the difficult spending trade-offs ahead, presents a challenge. A Gallup poll last year found only a third of Europeans would be willing to fight to defend their country, compared with 41% in the US.
Retired Dutch admiral Rob Bauer, who recently completed a term as NATO's most senior military official, says if Europe is to maintain peace, it must prepare for war to deter Putin. In recent months that message "has gotten stronger," he says, adding that officials are alarmed by data showing the Russian military industrial complex is producing more than it needs for the war in Ukraine, raising fears Russia could regenerate to attack Europe faster than previously envisaged.
In private, European officials say voters will only support necessary sacrifices—from higher military spending to reintroducing conscription—if they believe an attack will happen.
European security chiefs say Russia has already begun a covert assault on Europe to damage its economy and sow confusion, according to WSJ. Russia is suspected of being behind sabotage on critical European infrastructure and military facilities, cyberattacks on businesses, and arson attacks on warehouses and shopping centers. Russian drones have disrupted Polish airspace and jet fighters have flown over Estonia.
"We are now operating in a space between peace and war," said Metreweli.
The Kremlin has denied involvement in acts of sabotage or drone incursions in Europe, and Putin said last month that the idea Russia would invade another country was a "lie."
Last week, Germany accused Russia of being behind a cyberattack on its air-traffic control in 2024 and attempting to interfere with a federal election by spreading disinformation online. Suspected Russian drones have also interrupted flights at several European airports in recent months.
German officials suspect Moscow's campaign of sabotage and espionage is partly aimed at preparing an attack on NATO's logistical routes that would delay troop deployment in Eastern Europe in case of armed conflict targeting Poland or the Baltic States, WSJ reports.
Governments are taking steps to prepare. France has said it would reinstate voluntary military service for young people, following similar moves by Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. Germany is actively war-gaming how it would rush troops to the front in the event of a Russian attack. The U.K. is scaling back military training outside Europe to focus on Russia.
Military spending across the continent is rising. This year, NATO's European members agreed to increase traditional defense spending to 3.5% of their economies by 2035, compared with 2% currently. They have also agreed to spend another 1.5% on security-adjacent measures, such as hardening their infrastructure, which could help counter Russia's hybrid attack. Germany has pledged to spend more than a trillion dollars on its military and infrastructure over the next decade, aiming to create Europe's largest conventional force.
However, in many large western European economies, the trade-offs haven't yet been felt by the public. Britain, for instance, is funding a rise in military spending by cutting foreign aid to developing nations. Several military chiefs have publicly stated that spending will have to increase much more if Russia is to be deterred from further aggression.
