Russian military and security services give Putin inflated battlefield reports that have led him to believe he can win the war outright, according to the Financial Times. For example, just days after a Russian commander received Moscow's highest military honor for "liberating" Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine's president stood at the town's entrance filming a video to prove Russia was lying.
A gold medal for a city Russia doesn't control
Colonel-General Sergei Kuzovlev told Putin in late November that his troops had "completed the liberation of Kupiansk," a strategically important town in Kharkiv Oblast. "So you've finished everything?" Putin asked during a visit to Kuzovlev's command post. "Affirmative. The city is under our control," the general replied. Putin awarded him the Gold Star medal, Russia's highest military honor.
Map: ISW
Three days later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video of himself at Kupiansk's entrance.
"I went to Kupiansk myself to show the world that Putin is lying," he said.
Independent assessments confirm Russia has not fully controlled the town since early 2022.
Moscow says Kupiansk is Russian. Ukrainian forces insist only 100 Russian soldiers left in city
Putin projects confidence
Putin has received six public frontline briefings since October—the most since the war began, according to independent Russian news site Faridaily. He appeared in military uniform at three of them. During a four-and-a-half-hour press conference on 20 December, Putin insisted Russia holds the upper hand.
"Our troops are advancing along the whole frontline. The enemy is retreating," he claimed.
Asked about Zelenskyy's video, Putin claimed it was filmed a kilometer from the town. He stated Ukraine controlled no part of Kupiansk.
Pro-war Z-bloggers turn critical
Few cases have sparked as much fury among Russian war supporters as Kupiansk. The incident prompted unusual criticism from Russian military Z-bloggers on Telegram.
"It's simply laughable how we are trying to counter yet another video of Zelenskyy standing by the Kupiansk marker with our own clips," wrote Starshe Eddy, a popular Russian milblogger.
Rybar, one of the most prominent Z-bloggers, sarcastically called the city "Schrödinger's Kupiansk." He rebuked exaggerating frontline successes, saying the price of such "territories taken on credit" was soldiers' lives.
ISW: Russia’s top general promises fast victory — but even his boasts prove the opposite
Putin accepts high casualties for his goals
Putin appears to have concluded "those lives are worth paying for his goals in Ukraine," said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"He's lengthened the timeline to achieve his ultimate goal—subordination of Ukraine to Russia via political or military means," she said. "He feels confident that they will eventually take the remainder of Donetsk [Oblast] in this phase of his grander plans, while the Russian military reconstitutes."
The very high casualties required to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast "don't seem to bother him that much," Massicot added.
