Russia's war against Ukraine is not ending soon, and 2026 could bring serious threats not only for Ukraine but also for European countries, says Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, a development chief of a defense enterprise, 24 Kanal reports.
Russia is deliberately stockpiling resources for a prolonged war, while its allies help it circumvent sanctions and expand defense production.
Kremlin allies sustain Russian defense industry
According to Khrapchynskyi, since 2014, when the world responded to Russia’s aggression with limited sanctions, Moscow has been dispersing its production capacities among allied countries.
For instance, Belarus has increased microelectronics production. Factories like Integral and Monolit have, for years, acquired Western machinery from Germany, the US, and Japan with minimal restrictions.
Iran launched mass production of combat drones, while North Korea effectively supported the Russian defense industry by supplying artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and its own designs.
China flooded the Russian market with inexpensive electronics for FPV drones, Molniya drones, and electronic warfare systems. India has also announced its readiness to produce Lancet‑2 drones.
Khrapchynskyi estimates that Russia now produces about 20% more weapons than the front requires.
"100% is used in the war in Ukraine, and an additional 20% is held in strategic reserves for potential operations in Europe," the expert said.
"There’s gas, but toilets are outside. They haven’t felt worse"
Russia has fully shifted to a war economy. High salaries in the defense sector, increased military pay, and compensation are financed through oil sold via the shadow fleet, as well as resources and gold from Africa, where Wagner Group structures previously operated.
The social effect on the population is minimal.
“Russians never lived well anyway. There’s gas, but toilets are outside. They haven’t felt worse. The money just went not to the oligarchs but to the war,” the expert notes.
Moscow can sustain a prolonged war as long as Iran, China, India, Belarus, some post-Soviet states, and Turkiye continue providing resources and helping circumvent sanctions.
2026: drones, missiles, and pressure on Europe
Khrapchynskyi predicts that 2026 will be more challenging than previous years due to the widespread use of inexpensive but effective technologies.
Shahed-type drones will become more controllable, gain mesh networking capabilities, the ability to transmit data across Ukraine, additional strike capabilities, and improved counter-interception defenses.
Combined attacks, pairing a carrier with FPV drones or missiles, will become standard tactics rather than exceptions.
Russia is also modernizing the Kh-101, Iskander-M, and other missiles, making them harder to intercept while increasing their numbers.
The expert also warns of expanding kill zones: drone and missile ranges will grow, exerting pressure deep into Ukrainian territory.
Simultaneously, Moscow will increase hybrid pressure on Europe, combining the shadow fleet, drones, fake aerial targets, and political tools, exploiting European societies’ reluctance to live in a wartime reality.
Khrapchynskyi emphasizes that Ukraine needs a unified, clear, and long‑term strategy rather than scattered initiatives to counter Russia.
