The Baltic states could potentially fall under Russian occupation, and Europe is already in a zone of direct risk, said Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR), during an interview at the LB Club.
Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a similar warning during a speech in Berlin, stating that the Alliance could become Russia’s next target and that Europe is already at risk, as per The Guardian.
According to Budanov, Russia does not view war as an exception, but rather as a core instrument of imperial survival, which requires constant expansion.
Kremlin's logic: Why Europe?
Budanov explained why Russia is looking specifically toward Europe, rather than other directions.
To the north, he said, lies the Arctic Ocean and the US, which for the Kremlin would mean inevitable catastrophe.
“Not an option. It would be painful,” Budanov noted.
To the east lies the Pacific Ocean and the US, while to the south is China, where Russia would face an even more dire scenario due to its long land border.
“That would be a catastrophe, the same conditions as in our war with Russia, but for them,” he said.
As a result, Budanov concluded, only the West remains, which in the Kremlin’s worldview is perceived as spoiled, weak, and indecisive.
Timelines shortened: war could come sooner than expected
Budanov stated that under Russia’s original plans, preparations for large-scale actions against Europe were expected to be completed by 2030. However, those timelines have now been revised and shortened to 2027.
“Russia sees itself as an empire. And an empire, in order to exist, must constantly expand its influence and territory,” Budanov explained.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Poland is currently not viewed as a target for occupation, but rather as a target for military strikes and a campaign without territorial seizure.
