- The crash of a Russian air force airlifter speaks to a wider problem
- Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russia can replace them
- The Russian air force is doomed to shrink as more planes get grounded ... or crash
The Russian air force Antonov An-22 heavylift transport plane that broke in half and crashed near Ivanovo air base 250 km west of Moscow on 14 December may have been the last An-22 in Russian service.
The horrific crash, captured on video from the ground, underscores a growing problem for the Russian air force as Russia's wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year: Russian warplanes are wearing out faster than Russian factories can replace them.
The Russian air arm is still much bigger than the Ukrainian air force and boasts capabilities the Ukrainian air arm lacks, such as heavy bombers and stealth fighters. But the Russian air force, or VKS, will almost certainly shrink, a lot—and not just because its aircraft are getting shot down by Ukrainian missiles and blown up on the ground by Ukrainian drones.
No, the Russian air force will shrink because many of its roughly 1,700 fixed-wing aircraft—fighters, attack jets, bombers, and transports—will simply wear out from overuse in the wider war.
"It wouldn't shock me if by the time the war in Ukraine ends, between combat losses, wear/tear and aging of its already old aircraft fleet, [the] VKS might end up being down ~40% from its pre-war fleet of combat aircraft," Czech analyst Jakub Janovsky predicted.
The four-engine, turboprop An-22 that crashed near Moscow, killing seven people, was around 50 years old, but continued in service a year past its anticipated retirement, likely owing to the demands of the Russian war effort. Russian transport aircraft shuttle troops and supplies around Russia and also deliver cruise missiles to Russian bomber bases shortly before those bombers strike Ukrainian cities.
The Fighterbomber Telegram channel claimed it was the last An-22 in air force use. The giant turboprop could haul 80,000 kg of cargo and land on rough airstrips.
An airlifter can safely fly for 50 years or even longer if it's properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded. But it's evident from the An-22's mid-air disintegration that it wasn't properly maintained, overhauled, and upgraded.
The problem may be endemic across the Russian air force fleet. Maintenance isn't keeping up with use as Russian planes relentlessly bombard Ukraine.
It's a problem Defense News identified as early as March 2024. "The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the life span of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine," the trade publication reported.
Combat losses aren't the real problem
The Russians have lost around 170 aircraft in combat in Ukraine since February 2022. That's 10% of the pre-war fleet.
Russian factories have produced enough new aircraft to replace virtually all of the combat losses.
But they haven't produced enough new aircraft to make up for older planes that become unflyable owing to metal fatigue.
Consider the Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35, respectively—the Russian air force's best attack plane and best fighter. The VKS went to war in February 2022 with around 130 Su-34s and 100 Su-35s. In 45 months of hard fighting, the air arm has lost 35 Su-34s and eight Su-35s.
Over the same span of time, Sukhoi has delivered around 39 Su-34s and 26 Su-35s, more than making good combat losses. But that doesn't mean the air force's inventory isn't shrinking.
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"A subset of its fleets has built up significant fatigue hours," the Royal United Services Institute in London explained in a recent report.
RUSI noted that Russian industry is scaling up production of other key weapons—tanks, drones, and missiles—tenfold in order to replace lost and expended hardware ... and also hardware that simply wears out. But the Russian aviation industry probably can't increase its output tenfold.
Why Russian factories can't keep up
"At the higher level, Russia's aviation industry appears to be a strong sovereign sector with advanced indigenous capabilities," the think tank noted. "However, once one begins to examine the second- and third-tier suppliers, the robustness of Russia's aviation industry appears less assured."
The sector depends on a skilled workforce and a steady supply of foreign components. The workforce is under stress. And sanctions have disrupted the flow of foreign parts—Ukrainian intelligence has identified over 2,000 imported electronic components in Russian Su-series fighter jets.
"The difficulties Russia has encountered to achieve even small increases in [aircraft] production, in a sector with comparatively fewer sanctions than other parts of its defense industry, speaks to a range of vulnerabilities across the Sukhoi supply chain," RUSI observed.
Key production vulnerabilities identified by RUSI:
- Russian aviation industry depends on foreign components and machine tools
- Skilled workforce under severe stress from wartime demands
- Sanctions have disrupted flow of critical foreign parts
- Even small production increases have proven difficult to achieve
A shrinking fleet
Those vulnerabilities are why there aren't enough new planes reaching VKS regiments. And why older planes continue to fly even when they're unsafe.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has reported that Russian airlines could lose nearly 30% of their aircraft by 2030 as sanctions strangle the aviation sector—and the military side faces similar pressures. The Russian air force is doomed to shrink as more worn-out planes get permanently parked ... or crash.
