Ukrainian troops are pressing forward near Kupiansk, where Russian forces are facing growing pressure and severe supply issues, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers are publicly disputing Kremlin efforts to deny any losses, exposing a widening rift in Moscow’s wartime messaging.
The cities of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Siversk, and Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast, along with Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, have remained key flashpoints on the front lines for several months. In autumn, Russian forces attempted a push from the northeast toward Kupiansk, entered parts of the city, and claimed its full seizure. However, Ukrainian troops have recently encircled and completely cut off the small remaining Russian group in Kupiansk. Despite the obvious, official Russia keeps downplaying the situation in Kupiansk.
Kremlin scrambles to deny Kupiansk setbacks
In its 16 December report, ISW said that “the Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupiansk (ISW keeps using the Russian transliteration for some Ukrainian toponyms, - Ed.),” even though Ukrainian military sources said only about 200 Russian troops remain in the town. These forces are reportedly cut off from regular supplies after a series of successful Ukrainian “shaping and interdiction operations.”
Map: ISW
Russian state media has significantly elevated the voices of military officials and propagandists to maintain the illusion that Russia is close to toppling Ukraine’s defenses. ISW said this propaganda push likely aims “to uphold a false Russian narrative that Russian forces are imminently collapsing Ukraine’s defense — a narrative aimed at influencing Ukraine and the West to make significant concessions to Russia.”
Russian state outlets, including the Western Grouping of Forces (GoF) and an unnamed source from the Russian Joint GoF, claimed Russian troops still control Kupiansk. They also accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of faking his 11 December video from the town.
Russian milbloggers push back with claims — and criticism
To reinforce their version of events, some Russian milbloggers shared allegedly geolocated video footage of two soldiers from the 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment, part of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, walking through southern Kupiansk. They used this footage to claim Russian forces still hold the town.
One milblogger directly accused the Russian media of hiding the truth, saying that Russian state press is relying on official messaging "to conceal the battlefield situation in Kupiansk.”
Regarding the latest troop movements across the front lines, ISW noted:
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Ukraine retakes 90% of Kupiansk after systematic campaign that disabled Russia’s secret pipeline infiltration route
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ISW: Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kupiansk ongoing, with more settlements liberated (MAP)
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ISW: Russia’s army can’t sustain multi-pronged offensives due to manpower and equipment strain
