The new version of the US peace plan does not offer security guarantees for Kyiv, but rather “assurances," ZN.UA reports. This same term was used in the Budapest Memorandum, which ultimately led to Ukraine ending its 12-year war despite giving up its nuclear weapons in exchange for “protection” from invasion by the US and the UK.
This framework agreement is not legally binding and does not require ratification by the parliaments of its signatories.
“As a result, Ukraine is once again being handed the same rake as with the infamous memorandum,” the journalists, who have seen the plan, say.
In exchange for "assurances," Ukraine will have to cede Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to Russia. Moscow will also take parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
NATO is assigned only the role of an observer that will merely assess violations
One of the three points of this document concerns US “assurances” in the event that Russia attacks Ukraine again and violates the “ceasefire line.” However, such an attack must be significant, deliberate, and sustained. The question is how the attack can be unintentional?
This means that there is room for allies to debate and decide what qualifies as a “significant” or “sustained” attack if necessary.
The US response will depend on the political will of the president, not on a treaty
If an attack meets all the above conditions, a US president, after urgent consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners, will determine the measures required to “restore security.”
The list of possible actions against the aggressor includes the use of armed forces, intelligence support, logistics assistance, economic and diplomatic measures, and any other actions the “leader of the free world” deems necessary.
A joint mechanism with NATO and Ukraine will also be established to evaluate every reported violation by Russia.
The agreement is intended to take effect immediately upon signature, remain in force for ten years, and may be extended by mutual consent.
A special joint monitoring commission, led by European partners with US participation, will oversee compliance with the terms of the agreement.
The conditions are unequal: Russia may shell Ukraine, but Ukraine may not strike Russia
If Russia invades Ukraine, it will face a “strong military response” and the reimposition of all sanctions. If Ukraine attacks Russian territory, it will lose all assurances.
The same applies if Ukraine “unprovokedly” begins shelling Russian territory.
However, if Russia shells Ukraine, assurances for Kyiv remain in effect, but the plan does not stipulate reimposition of sanctions or a “strong military response” against Russia in that case.
In reality, European guarantors of the assurances don't want to fight
Another section of the document addresses the actions of NATO members, specifically mentioning France, the UK, Germany, Poland, and Finland.
According to Washington, these countries should confirm that Ukraine’s security is an integral part of European stability, act in unison with the US in response to Russian violations, and maintain a unified and credible deterrence posture.
But, Finland, listed among the “guarantors,” has already publicly rejected this role, stating that while it has helped and continues to help Ukraine, it is not ready to provide security guarantees.
Poland, also included, has remained silent, although its leadership has repeatedly stated it will neither send troops to Ukraine nor jointly secure Ukraine’s airspace.
This makes it even less clear what a “strong military response” in Trump’s “peace package” actually entails.
Journalists question who else Washington considers among the signatories beyond Ukraine, the US, France, the UK, and Germany, including NATO.
The US closes NATO’s doors to Ukraine in a separate document
In the new “Trump peace plan,” there is no obligation for Ukraine or NATO to codify Ukraine’s non-entry into the Alliance.
However, ZN.UA notes that this "does not mean Washington and Moscow have abandoned the goal of permanently keeping NATO’s doors closed to Ukraine."
A separate document in the package states that NATO will no longer expand and will not invite Ukraine to become a member.
Transfer of all former Warsaw Pact countries into Russia’s sphere of influence
The second point in the document states that the US intends to “moderate” dialogue between Russian and NATO leaders to address all “security concerns.”
Putin has repeatedly cited NATO expansion and its proximity to Russia’s borders as one of Russia’s main “concerns” and a “root cause” of the war against Ukraine.
It is unclear whether this refers to the withdrawal of US troops from all European countries. It is also unclear whether this point refers to a new division of Europe and the “transfer” of all former Warsaw Pact countries back into Russia’s sphere of influence, say the journalists.
In addition, the US will oppose the deployment of any “NATO troops” in Ukraine.
