Kazakhstan is redirecting crude oil from its giant Kashagan field to China for the first time after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Black Sea terminal. Kashagan, an offshore field located in Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea zone near Atyrau, ranks among the largest oil discoveries of the past 40 years, with recoverable reserves estimated at 7-13 billion barrels.
Earlier this week, Geopoly Global analyst Randall Schmollinger asked whether Kazakhstan could diversify fast enough to matter. Now we have an answer: yes, but the oil is heading to Beijing, not Brussels.
CPC terminal crippled
Kashagan exports most of its output through the CPC pipeline to Russia’s Novorossiysk port, where tankers carry it to European and global markets. Ukrainian drone strikes on 14 November, 24-25 November, and 29 November damaged critical loading infrastructure at the terminal. Only one of three single-point moorings remains operational—SPM-2 was seriously damaged, while SPM-3 is undergoing scheduled maintenance.
China steps in
Kazakhstan plans to ship 50,000 metric tons to China in December, according to Reuters. China National Petroleum Corporation will transport roughly 30,000 tons via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, while Japan’s Inpex will ship about 20,000 tons. Both companies hold stakes in the consortium operating the Kashagan field.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed it is “working to redistribute volumes and intensify the use of alternative routes,” but said the CPC disruption did not halt exports completely.
The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline typically carries oil from other Kazakh fields—not Kashagan. Current monthly flows average 85,000-86,000 tons, leaving capacity for additional shipments.
Implications for Europe
The redirection comes as Europe depends on CPC crude for roughly 11.5% of its oil imports—about 1.05 million barrels daily. Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are among the largest buyers of Kazakh oil transported through the Russian terminal.
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The consortium also counts Chevron and ExxonMobil among its shareholders. Kyiv maintains its strikes target Russia’s war-sustaining infrastructure, not neutral third parties like Kazakhstan, but the economic fallout does not observe that distinction.
Kazakhstan formally protested what it called “aggression against an exclusively civilian facility.”
Whether this represents a temporary emergency measure or a longer-term shift remains unclear. Kazakhstan has balanced between Russia, China, and the West for three decades. The CPC terminal handles nearly 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. A prolonged CPC disruption could force Astana into choices it has long avoided.
