- 19 Su-27s lost since February 2022—Ukraine may have only 12-23 left in service
- No replacement source exists—unlike MiG-29s or F-16s, no allied nation operates Su-27s
- Attrition rate of 4-5 jets per year could force brigade consolidation within two years
- Stored airframes likely unrecoverable—decades of open storage caused unfixable corrosion
- F-16s and Mirages must fill the gap until Gripens and Rafales arrive in coming years
Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighter over eastern Ukraine on 8 December, the Ukrainian air force reported. The pilot, Lt. Col. Yevhenii Ivanov, died in the shoot-down.
The loss—Ukraine's 19th Su-27 since Russia's full-scale invasion—accelerates an irreversible countdown. Unlike MiG-29s, F-16s, or Mirages, no ally has Su-27s to donate. Ukraine's most capable Soviet-era interceptor is bleeding out with no transfusion available.
Why the Su-27 matters more than other jets
Fast, maneuverable, and versatile, the Su-27 interceptor is one of Ukraine's most useful warplanes. But it's also the most endangered fighter in Ukrainian service.
That's because Ukraine's potential stock of grounded but recoverable Su-27s is smaller than its stock of old, but fairly intact, Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters. And while there are still a few soon-to-be-surplus MiG-29s sitting in shelters across Europe, none of Ukraine's foreign allies have Su-27s they could donate to the war effort.
Ukraine's fighter fleet at a glance
The Ukrainian air force currently operates four fighter types with varying replacement prospects:
| Aircraft | Origin | Delivered | Replacement available? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Su-27 | Soviet inheritance | ~12-23 remain | ❌ None—no allied operators |
| MiG-29 | Soviet + European donations | ~30-40 active | ⚠️ Limited European surplus |
| F-16 | European donations | ~60 of 90 pledged | ✓ More possible |
| Mirage 2000 | French donations | ~6 of 12+ pledged | ✓ More possible |
Of Ukraine's four fighter types, the Su-27 is the likeliest to disappear as Russia's wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fifth year.
Soviet leftovers: from 74 to a dwindling few
Ukraine inherited 74 then-new Su-27s when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Twenty-three years later, as few as 24 were in active service.
The Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 motivated Kyiv to expand the Su-27 fleet. It's possible as many as three dozen unflyable airframes were in storage at the time. By 2016, at least one analyst had counted 57 Ukrainian Su-27s with confirmable "bort" numbers painted on their noses.
If all the identifiable airframes were in reasonably good condition, Kyiv could've—with great effort—restored every single available airframe and grown the fleet to nearly 60 jets. In practice, it's unlikely all the airframes were recoverable after many years, or even decades, in open storage.
On 25 February 2022, a Su-27 exploded while patrolling over Kyiv. It was the first wartime Su-27 loss for Ukraine. In the following 44 months, another 18 of the Sukhois were lost: crashed, shot down, or destroyed on the ground by Russian bombardment.
Each loss nudged the Ukrainian Su-27 fleet closer to zero.
The Myrhorod disaster
Arguably, the most painful losses occurred on 1 July 2024, when a Russian surveillance drone winged from Russian lines to the Ukrainian air force's Myrhorod air base, 160 km from Ukraine's northern border with Russia.
Trending Now
The drone spotted at least six Su-27s recklessly parked in the open at the base in broad daylight. A Russian Iskander missile barreled in, destroying two of the precious Sukhois and damaging the other four.
How many Su-27s remain?
The Ukrainians now have at most 38 active Su-27s, but it's getting harder and harder to confirm the actual number. Until recently, we could occasionally spot—in official photos or videos from the front line—particular Su-27s.
The combination of bort numbers and camouflage patterns is the easiest way to identify a specific Su-27, but the air force knows this—and has begun painting over the bort numbers and applying a new US Air Force-style "gray ghost" camo scheme that has the added benefit of making the jets less visible from the ground.
One close observer of the Ukrainian Su-27 fleet speculated, back in September, that there were at least a dozen and at most 25 active Su-27s with two units: the 39th and 831st Tactical Aviation Brigades. There have been two more losses since then.
If the observer's September count was accurate, there may be between one dozen and two dozen old stored Su-27 airframes with potentially unfixable corrosion. The active fleet is being attrited at a rate of between four and five a year.
At best, the Su-27 brigades may have a couple of years before they may need to consolidate into a single brigade. Two years later at the current rate of loss, the type could become rare and unsupportable in Ukrainian service.
What comes next
All we know for sure is that every Su-27 Ukraine loses is a Su-27 it probably can't replace. As the Su-27s disappear, MiG-29s, F-16s and Mirage 2000s will have to take their places ... until factory-fresh Saab Gripens and Dassault Rafales can replace them in the coming years.
| Aircraft | Origin | Delivered | Replacement available? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Su-27 | Soviet inheritance | ~12-23 remain | ❌ None—no allied operators |
| MiG-29 | Soviet + European donations | ~30-40 active | ⚠️ Limited European surplus |
| F-16 | European donations | ~60 of 90 pledged | ✓ More possible |
| Mirage 2000 | French donations | ~6 of 12+ pledged | ✓ More possible |
