US President Donald Trump must step into talks with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin with providing Ukraine with more weapons, writes Simon Tisdall, The Guardian foreign affairs commentator. His policy should include insisting on fully enforced energy sanctions, a tougher response to sabotage and cyberattacks, and a united Western resolve to end Putin’s era of terror.
Putin is systematically destroying his own country. And sooner or later, like the tsars and totalitarian leaders of the past, the very imperial “eternal Russia” whose name he invokes will ultimately consume him.
Trump drew the line, but Putin refused
Last week, Donald Trump offered the Kremlin a “lifeline”, a peace deal that would have effectively rewarded Russian aggression.
Yet Putin rejected it, despite the fact that such a deal would have divided the US and Europe, undermined NATO, delayed Russia’s economic collapse, and potentially led to the fall of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government. For the Kremlin, this was a win, but he still said "no."
What is happening to the Russian economy?
After two years of growth artificially fueled by wartime spending, Russia’s oil and gas revenues have fallen by 27% year-over-year, and the country is heading toward recession.
- Inflation: 8%
- Key interest rate: over 16%
- The budget deficit is rising
- More than half of the liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund have been spent since 2022
- State monopolies are accumulating enormous debts
- Foreign investment has collapsed
- Imports of strategic goods have increased by 122%
- The tax burden on the population is surging, all to sustain the war
Even basic items are becoming more expensive: the price of vodka has risen by 5%.
Russia balances between war and social unrest
Putin’s willingness to sacrifice the well-being of ordinary Russians is reflected in the system of “rewards” for the deaths of volunteers from poor regions, where the average life expectancy on the front is only 12 days.
A halt in hostilities could trigger a large-scale social crisis, and this is precisely what the Kremlin fears. As a result, it is intensifying repression, blocking the online space, and crushing any sign of dissent.
A new report by LSE experts confirms: the worsening economic situation may heighten tensions within the Russian elite and the regime itself, making the war for Putin not so much a geopolitical project as a matter of survival.
