- There's just one way for Ukrainian troops to get into and out of Myrnohrad
- This sole supply line is under constant Russian attack
- Ukrainian troops are fighting hard to keep the route open
- Any stretch of bad luck for the Ukrainians could lead to Myrnohrad's fall
A single dangerous road is all that's sustaining the few Ukrainian troops clinging to positions in Myrnohrad, a town with a pre-war population of 46,000 that's quickly becoming a main locus of the fighting in eastern Ukraine now that neighboring Pokrovsk is nearly entirely controlled by Russian forces.
It's still barely possible for Ukrainian troops from the 38th Marine Infantry Brigade and the 79th Air Assault Brigade to travel along the road. But the route "is almost constantly under [first-person-view] drone fire control by the Rubicon group," observer Thorkill noted. "It is occasionally also infiltrated by [Russian sabotage] groups approaching it."
Just three things are keeping the road open, underscoring the perilous state of the Ukrainian military's stubborn defense of Myrnohrad nearly a year after the Russian Center Group of Forces, some 150,000 strong, arrived at the outskirts of Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk following a long and costly march.
The village of Rodynske abuts the road on the east. Rodynske is contested by the Ukrainian 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades, among other units. If Rodynske falls, Russian infantry operating from the ruins would be in a good position to fully and permanently block the road to Myrnohrad.
Russian sabotage groups aren't waiting for their comrades to capture Rodynske. Slipping through the porous front line, they can lie in wait along the road and ambush passing Ukrainian troops. It's the job of the Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade, which Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi—Ukraine's top commander—recently ordered to the Myrnohrad sector, to clear out the saboteurs with local counterattacks.
And then there's the fog. Overcast winter weather can ground and blind surveillance and attack drones.
“Fog is an equal-opportunity employer,” Ukraine Control Map noted. It hurts whichever side deploys more drones, and helps the side deploying more ground forces.
Fog gives ... and takes
Over and along the road into Myrnohrad, the Ukrainians are the ones counting on ground movement. The Russians—specifically the FPV operators from the elite Rubicon (also spelled Rubikon) group—are the ones counting on drones to achieve a decisive effect.
In the fight for the Myrnohrad road, the fog favors the Ukrainians moving into and out of the town.
Indeed, the 38th Marine Infantry Brigade and the 79th Air Assault Brigade can only slip vehicles into Myrnohrad on the foggiest days, according to Thorkill. A stretch of clear winter weather could doom the Ukrainian defense.
Given the extreme fragility of the Ukrainians' positions in Myrnohrad, French analyst Clément Molin explained that he and other observers "struggle to understand Syrskyi's strategy."
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The Ukrainian commander-in-chief has come under fire for "holding onto lost cities [and] losing men for nothing at a time of infantry shortage," Molin wrote.
An epidemic of desertion from training centers, combined with an inequitable and deeply unpopular conscription system, has steadily sapped Ukrainian manpower, lending Russian forces a five-to-one troop advantage—or greater—in many of the most important sectors.
It's almost certainly inevitable that the Russian Center Group of Forces will eventually capture Myrnohrad, likely soon. There are too many weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses. Too many variables that, if they even briefly favor the Russians, could sever the Ukrainians' sole supply line into the town.
The question isn't whether Myrnohard will fall. It's how many Ukrainian troops may be trapped in the town when it falls.
