- Ukrainian troops are fighting hard north of Huliaipole in southern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- But the stubborn defense is undermined by Russian advances on the flanks
- The recent destruction of an unarmored Russian assault group belies a wider Russian advantage in people and equipment
- One observer expects a steady Russian push through mid-January
All eyes are on Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast as Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and supporting brigades retreat from the adjacent towns following a yearlong siege by the Russian Center Group of Forces.
But it's not in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad that the Russians are advancing fast. No, the most dramatic Russian gains this year have come just south of Pokrovsk in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, where the open terrain, foggy weather, and thin Ukrainian defenses have practically invited a sustained assault from a powerful Russian force subordinate to the 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies.
So it's very good new for the outgunned, outnumbered Ukrainian defenders in the south that they've managed to halt Russian attacks around the town of Danylivka, just 20 km north of the main Ukrainian logistics hub in the region in Huliaipole.
Ukrainian drones destroy unarmored Russian assault at Danylivka
The Ukrainian 20th Army Corps put up a spirited defense in Danylivka recently. A Russian assault group, possibly from the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade, rode into the village in unarmored civilian light vehicles—and ran into a wall of Ukrainian drones. "We destroyed a platoon of invaders," the Ukrainian 214th Assault Battalion reported.
But at least one observer expects the "stubborn defense" of Danylivka to falter as the bigger Russian force advances farther south, potentially initiating the kind of encirclement that undermined the Ukrainian defense of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. "Unfortunately, Ukrainian successes in this area are likely only temporary," observer Thorkill warned.
To be sure, the Ukrainian 20th Army Corps is fighting hard, if unevenly. Some of its most experienced brigades—the 110th Mechanized Brigade, for one—are also its most exhausted. And one brigade, the 102nd Territorial Brigade, recently and unexpectedly fell back.
After a long pause in mechanized assaults earlier this year, Russian forces have lately deployed more armored vehicles—including up-armored turtle, porcupine, and hedgehog tanks that can take multiple drone hits before being immobilized. It's notable that the Danylivka assault involved unprotected vehicles.
The wider problem, for the Ukrainians west of Danylivka, is that their efforts there "will become pointless" if the Russian 127th Motor Rifle Division sustains its own advance a few kilometers south around the village of Yablukove. At risk is the main road threading from Pokrovsk to Huliaipole ... and eventually Huliaipole itself.
How Russia's 127th Division threatens Pokrovsk-style encirclement
Trending Now
"Due to the deep breach made by the Russian 127th [Motor Rifle] Division in the Ukrainian defenses along the Yantsur River line in the Uspenivka-Poltavka area, its [infiltration] units are approaching the Pokrovsk-Huliaipole road in the Varvarivka area and will likely cut it there soon, if they haven't already," Thorkill reported.
"At the same time, the aforementioned unit could support the offensive actions of the 36th Army with attacks on the Ukrainian flank in the Radisne-Nechayivka area," halfway between Uspenivka and Danylivka.
Russia's numerical advantage and the timeline ahead
As in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, there are just too many Russian troops and too few Ukrainian troops for the Ukrainians to hold the line—especially given the sparse Ukrainian earthworks in the area. Thorkill expects the Russians to keep attacking, and likely advancing, for another two months.
"Up until now, the rule was that around mid-January on the front in the Donbas, an operational pause would occur, which lasted until April," Thorkill explained. "I think it will be similar this time. So, roughly until mid-January, the Russians will keep pushing."
The tactical success at Danylivka demonstrates Ukrainian drone operators' continued effectiveness against unprotected Russian assaults. But the broader strategic picture shows Russian forces repeating their Pokrovsk playbook: allowing Ukrainian forces to hold the front while systematically collapsing the flanks to force eventual withdrawal. With foggy weather limiting Ukrainian drone effectiveness and Russian numerical superiority in troops and equipment, the pattern mirrors the encirclement tactics that eventually forced Ukrainian retreats elsewhere.
