European defense possesses the economic and technological capacity to match Russian military power within five years, but severe shortfalls in ground forces and ammunition mean the continent remains dangerously unprepared for major war, according to a French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) analysis released on 4 November.
The assessment reveals a stark reality: Ukrainian resistance currently serves as Europe's primary deterrent against broader Russian aggression while the continent races to build military capabilities it should already possess.
"European countries have the necessary potential—that is, the economic means, military capabilities and technological expertise—to face Russia by 2030, provided they demonstrate the political will to do so," writes IFRI director Thomas Gomart in the report's executive summary.
That five-year timeline assumes Ukraine continues absorbing the bulk of Russian military power, giving Europe breathing room it has yet to use effectively.
Ukraine buys time for European defense to catch up
The IFRI study identifies Ukrainian resistance as one of two pillars preventing Russian military assault on Euro-Atlantic territory. The other is NATO unity, which depends on uncertain US commitment.
If either pillar erodes, the report warns, "the risk of an open armed confrontation between Russia and Europe, whatever the scale, would increase considerably."
This makes Ukraine's fight existential not just for Kyiv, but for a European continent that has failed to convert three years of elevated defense spending into the military mass needed to deter Moscow on its own.
Russia maintains what the analysis calls "a decisive advantage in terms of mass, firepower, mobilization capacity and tolerance for attrition." Ukrainian forces have countered this through innovation, Western weapons, and strategic depth—advantages European armies would struggle to replicate if forced to confront Russia directly before 2030.
Europe dominates air and sea but can't match Russia on land
The report quantifies Europe's military inadequacy in stark terms:
- Ground forces: Twenty of 30 European NATO/EU nations field fewer than 15,000 soldiers
- Ammunition: Critical shortfalls in stockpiles that would impede sustained combat operations
- Missiles: Production capabilities described as a "dire picture"
- Industrial surge: Higher defense budgets have not translated into tangible manufacturing capacity
The assessment notes Europe holds clear advantages in air and naval domains, plus qualitative edges in soldier training and command structures. But the analysis emphasizes that "the land domain remains Europe's weak point"—precisely where Ukraine has been fighting Russia to a standstill for nearly four years.
Europe's air superiority comes with a critical dependency: sustaining it requires "massive support from the United States," raising questions about readiness if US commitment wavers.
Economic strength without military output
The disconnect between Europe's economic capacity and military readiness defines the report's central tension.
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European nations have enacted transformative industrial policies—the Critical Raw Material Act, Net Zero Industries Act, and Clean Industrial Act—while reducing fossil fuel import costs by 50% since 2022, saving over €250 billion annually. The continent possesses economic advantages Russia cannot match.
Yet these resources have not produced the ammunition stockpiles, artillery pieces, or troop numbers required to replace what Ukraine currently provides: a barrier against Russian territorial expansion.
The analysis concludes Europe's response to "sustained Russian hybrid warfare" has been "largely defensive and overly cautious," suggesting conventional military readiness alone cannot counter Moscow's full threat spectrum.
Russia's permanent warfare model
The IFRI assessment describes Russian strategy as "permanent, cross-domain and coercive," using subversive actions to "prepare the ground for an open military campaign, designed to be brief, intense and decisive."
This approach aims to "influence the West's risk assessment and paralyze its decision-making by instilling the fear of escalation"—a tactic that has repeatedly delayed Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine and slowed European rearmament.
Russia's updated nuclear doctrine reinforces this escalation calculus, lowering the threshold for nuclear use to include conventional wars against non-nuclear countries backed by nuclear-armed allies. While US, French, and British deterrence currently shields Europe, the report cautions that any loss of credibility in extended deterrence would leave Europe facing "a strategic imbalance with Russia."
Ukraine has effectively demonstrated how to counter Russian hybrid warfare through military resistance combined with maintaining societal resilience. The IFRI analysis states Ukraine is "showing the way to the rest of Europe" in opposing Russian aggression.
The 2030 calculation
Europe's path to matching Russian military power by 2030 depends on political decisions made now—and on Ukraine maintaining its defensive lines in the interim.
The analysis serves as both warning and roadmap: Europe possesses the resources and technology to build necessary military capabilities within five years. What remains uncertain is whether European political will can match Ukrainian military determination before the security architecture deteriorates further.
As the report makes clear, the continent faces a critical race against time, with Ukraine currently fighting the war that Europe may need to fight if it fails to prepare adequately.
