A planned high-stakes meeting in Budapest between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been abruptly canceled, with the Trump administration declaring it would not "waste time" on unproductive negotiations. US officials cited Russia's refusal to abandon its maximalist war aims in Ukraine as the primary reason for the collapse.
Despite the summit’s cancellation, Russia may have achieved its tactical aims. In the run-up to the event, Trump dashed the hopes of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on the delivery of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, citing concerns raised by Putin that the delivery would “harm” the relationship between the USA and Russia.
The summit's collapse reveals a hardening of positions from both sides. It signals that a diplomatic end to the war remains a remote possibility as long as Moscow believes it holds a military advantage and sees no immediate, pressing threat that would force it to the negotiating table.
What led to the cancellation
The proposed talks were viewed by some as a narrow path toward de-escalating the conflict. However, preliminary discussions showed that Moscow’s fundamental goal of conquering Ukraine remains unchanged, as first reported by the New York Post.
According to reports, a key sticking point was Russia’s insistence that any ceasefire must be implemented along the current front lines—a condition viewed by both Washington and Kyiv as a de facto acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains.
The Tomahawk factor in the talks’ collapse
From the Kremlin's perspective, the incentive to negotiate appears to have evaporated. Russian officials feel less pressure to engage in talks now that the immediate threat of the United States supplying long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine has subsided, according to the Associated Press.
Trump’s decision to halt the Tomahawks came after a two-and-a-half-hour phone call on 16 October. According to the Kremlin, Putin warned that Tomahawks “would not change the situation on the battlefield but would cause significant harm to relations between our countries.” Within days, Trump's tone shifted from threatening to send “a couple thousand Tomahawks” to saying “we need Tomahawks for the United States.”
This development removed a significant piece of leverage, pushing Moscow toward negotiations.
As the Washington Post noted, without this imminent military threat, Russia has little reason to alter its current strategy.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, assessed that the Kremlin has been waging a “reflexive control campaign” aimed at deterring the United States from authorizing Tomahawk missile sales to Ukraine. The think tank noted that Russia has 'routinely successfully delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine' through similar information operations targeting previous deliveries of ATACMS, HIMARS, F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks.
ISW mapped at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of Tomahawk missiles, explaining why the Kremlin fought so hard against their delivery.
Key factors in the summit's collapse:
- Russian stance: Refusal to abandon the goal of conquering more Ukrainian territory.
- US position: Russia’s unwillingness to accept a ceasefire on the current front lines.
- Military leverage: Reduced threat of US Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine.
Official and expert reactions
The collapse of the summit has drawn swift reactions, underscoring the vast gulf between the warring sides' positions.
"Russia continues to do everything to weasel out of diplomacy—and as soon as the issue of long-range capabilities for us—for Ukraine—became less immediate, Russia’s interest in diplomacy faded almost automatically. This signals that this very issue—the issue of our deep strike capabilities—may hold the indispensable key to peace," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a defiant message on his official Telegram channel.
This sentiment was echoed by analysts who view Russia's diplomatic engagement as tactical.
"That there will likely be no Trump-Putin meeting in the near future does not change the fact that Putin’s psychological operation to disrupt the Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine has been, so far, a success. That disruption was the only thing that actually mattered," wrote Anton Shekhovtsov, an academic and expert on Russian malign influence, on his Facebook page.
Hungarian officials remain hopeful
Despite the cancellation, officials in Budapest have expressed hope that the summit may still take place. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Hungary remains ready to host the talks, emphasizing the importance of dialogue. Similarly, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reiterated his government's commitment to peace, suggesting the door for negotiation is not completely closed.
