Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast.
Here, as Russia publicly aims to strive for peace through diplomacy, they are secretly amassing a huge force in the rear, preparing to launch a massive offensive before the end of the month. However, as Trump is fed up with Russian delays, he is threatening to cripple the Russian war economy in the toughest sanctions seen to date.
The primary objective of the Russian forces in this area is to secure control of the towns of Lyman and Borova. In the process, this would push the Ukrainian forces toward the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers, effectively diminishing their bridgehead across the rivers that they established during the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive.
To execute this plan, Russians are massing a huge reserve force in the rear, with reports estimating over 30,000 troops stationed to the Borova sector alone.
Unlike the poorly trained volunteers, convicts, and mobilized soldiers deployed elsewhere, these troops are undergoing additional training and being actively prepared for future combat. This force signals a serious Russian commitment to the operation. Combined with existing frontline units, it would grant Russia a 3-to-1 numerical advantage over Ukraine’s Third Army Corps defending the sector.
Russians are planning to build on the minor bridgeheads over the Zherebets River, which they seized in efforts spanning the last three months, culminating in the capture of the settlement of Novoliubimovka and the approach to Nove.
Russians aim to expand and link up their bridgeheads across the Zherebets River. Currently, the narrow width of the bridgeheads limits Russian assaults to infantry operations alone, preventing the full utilization of their remaining mechanized forces. A successful link-up would create a broader staging area for deploying reserves and heavy equipment, including armored vehicles.
Deploying combat-ready reserves to the expanded bridgehead would enable Russian forces to launch a full-scale offensive aimed at reaching the Oskil River, severing Ukrainian ground lines of communication between Lyman and Borova.
If successful, this maneuver would trap Ukrainian defenders in Borova, leaving them reliant on a single bridge over the Oskil for logistics. After cutting off the ground lines of communication to Borova, the Russians would set their eyes on moving southward towards Lyman and open a new offensive path into Donbas.
Such a maneuver, targeting the Ukrainian belt of fortress towns, aligns with a simultaneous planned offensive toward Kostyantinivka from the south. This indicates that Russians aim to seize the entirety of the Donetsk oblast through a massive military effort spanning throughout 2025 and 2026.
Notably, all of this unfolds amid the Kremlin’s ongoing stalling of peace negotiations, consistently adding new conditions after agreements are signed, and making ludicrous demands, such as the abandonment of Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, complete annexation of the five Ukrainian provinces claimed by Russia, and complete demilitarization of Ukraine.
While Russia publicly claims readiness for peace, they are concealing its true intentions, creating a diplomatic smoke-screen to secretly build up forces for a large-scale offensive.
However, they realize that the clock is ticking, signaled by the rushed deployment of over 30.000 Russian troops to the Lyman-Borova front for a last-minute offensive. Russia is trying to seize as much territory as possible before they are forced into a ceasefire agreement.
However, Trump is slowly catching on to this and is increasingly becoming fed up with Russia dragging its feet on a possible peace settlement, threatening a 50% secondary tariff on nations buying Russian oil. The US Senate is willing to take this a step further, however, with the majority agreeing on tougher action, including secondary sanctions of up to 500% on any country buying Russian oil.
Overall, the Russians leveraged a massive reserve force of experienced contract soldiers, preparing them for a massive offensive in the Lyman-Borova sector. Given the recent surge of activity and reports of continued Russian build-up in the Lyman direction, it is likely that Moscow will initiate its offensive before the end of April. With the US slowly catching on to Russian geopolitcal maneuvering however, this could potentially force significant sanctions on Russia that could cripple their war economy, with the threat of 500% tariffs making any partnering nation think twice about dealing in Russian oil.
In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
