A powerful Russian offensive has begun to reverse Ukrainian territorial gains in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, deploying one of its most effective drone units alongside North Korean troops, marines, and paratroopers in a coordinated push that threatens the Ukrainian military’s hold in the region, Forbes reports.
In recent days, Russian units have pushed deeper into Ukrainian positions, heightening the risk of encirclement for an estimated 10,000 Ukrainian troops. This push comes amid reports that Ukrainian forces may be considering a tactical withdrawal to avoid heavy losses. However, the Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv told Ukrainian Pravda that the situation in Kursk “remains challenging but under control.”
“The Russian advance, which began just as the administration of Donald Trump was cutting off Ukraine from US-gathered intelligence and shipments of American-made munitions, reversed Ukrainian gains from last month,” writes Forbes war correspondent David Axe.
The offensive is threatening to cut off the main supply route to Sudzha, the Ukrainian military’s primary base in the area. While the Ukrainian general staff told Ukrainian Pravda that the situation “remains challenging but under control,” questions persist about Ukraine’s ability to counter the counteroffensive’s new Russian capabilities.
After temporarily withdrawing in late 2023 or early 2024 following losses of approximately 4,000 troops, North Korea’s 11th Army Corps has rejoined the conflict with fresh reinforcements. “It seems the corps is back with fresh troops,” notes Axe in his frontline report.
These North Korean troops are fighting alongside the Russian 177th Marine Regiment, 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 11th Air Assault Brigade.
The Kremlin’s deployment of the Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems to the Kursk front has proven particularly effective, challenging Ukraine’s previously superior drone capabilities.
“Rubicon employs advanced drone tactics,” explains independent analyst Andrew Perpetua. “They often target short sections of roads—100 to 300 meters long—and saturate these areas with drones. Attacks are frequently carried out in groups, sometimes striking a vehicle’s front, back, and sides almost simultaneously.”
The drone unit has developed effective countermeasures against Ukrainian electronic warfare, with Perpetua noting that “Ukrainian logistics in Kursk have suffered severe damage from drone attacks.” Hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles have been destroyed, including valuable M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and MaxxPro armored trucks.
A Ukrainian Marine Corps drone operator with the call sign Kriegsforscher confirmed this disadvantage: “Numbers are definitely not [on] our side.”
Ukrainian forces have attempted to counter with limited air strikes, including MiG-29 fighter missions against Russian armored vehicle warehouses. Ukrainian troops have also reportedly repelled Russian infiltration attempts through an old pipeline into Sudzha.
However, Perpetua warns that “without significant advancements in jamming technology to counter Rubicon’s capabilities, maintaining a hold in Kursk may become unsustainable.”
Read more:
- ISW: Ukraine does not use HIMARS or ATACMS in Kursk, suggesting a US intelligence void
- Maxar confirms US government blocked Ukrainian access to satellite data (UPDATED)
- Russia narrows Ukrainian bridgehead to 11 km in Kursk Oblast offensive
- “Plan B was needed yesterday.” Is Ukraine on the brink of withdrawing from Kursk?
