The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 5 March that the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine will critically weaken Ukraine’s defenses against Russian military aggression, significantly limiting Ukraine’s ability to conduct targeted strikes against Russian ammunition storage and missile facilities.
This comes amid Trump’s shift in US policy on Ukraine, marking a pivot toward Russia since taking office in January. Recently, the US suspended all military aid for Ukraine and halted sharing intelligence, trying to force Ukraine into negotiations with Russia.
ISW highlighted Ukraine’s successful attacks against Russian ammunition and missile storage facilities, noting two key strikes: Ukrainian forces destroyed a significant Russian ammunition depot near Toropets, Tver Oblast, overnight on 17-18 September 2023, eliminating around two months' worth of Russian artillery ammunition, including Iskander and Tochka-U missiles. Another major strike occurred at the Tikhoretsk Arsenal in Krasnodar Krai overnight on 20 September, further diminishing Russian artillery capabilities.
These Ukrainian strikes previously reduced pressure on frontlines, notably around Avdiivka, by disrupting Russian artillery operations, especially important during prior delays in US military aid.
Consequences of halted intelligence sharing
Suspending all US intelligence cooperation will severely hinder Ukraine's capability to neutralize Russian missile threats. This suspension would enable Russian forces to intensify drone and missile strikes against Ukraine's rear regions, critically endangering civilian lives and jeopardizing essential infrastructure."Ukraine's inability to conduct ATACMS and HIMARS strikes against Russian air defense systems within Russia and occupied Ukraine will likely impact how close to the frontline Russian pilots are willing to operate and expand Russia's ability to effectively use glide bombs against both frontline areas and near rear Ukrainian cities," ISW wrote.Russian air attacks have been targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure and defense industries, significantly impacting Ukraine’s long-term defense capabilities.
"The suspension of US intelligence on Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear, coupled with the US suspension of supplies of Patriot air defense missiles that Ukraine relies upon to defend against Russian ballistic missiles, would have severe impacts on the safety of Ukrainian rear areas," ISW says.The anticipated increase in Russian missile and drone attacks would particularly damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and defense industry growth, essential for Ukraine’s long-term strategic self-sufficiency. According to ISW, Ukraine’s ongoing efforts toward defense industry autonomy would be heavily disrupted, potentially stalling crucial progress toward military independence. Related:
- US pushes Ukraine toward capitulation as Trump and Putin find common ground, expert says
- Defense minister: Ukraine seeks alternatives as US intelligence sharing faces restrictions
- European leaders meet for emergency talks on Ukraine amid Trump’s pivot to Russia
- US intelligence sharing freeze deprives Ukraine of Russian strikes warning, NYT reports
- European legislators urge Belgium to seize € 250 bn in frozen Russian assets
