Air raid alerts related to Russian MiG-31 fighter jets haven’t been declared in Ukraine since 28 January, BBC News Russian reports. This marks an unusual pause in operations for these aircraft that had been flying regularly throughout 2024.
BBC News Russian reports that since the beginning of 2025, MiG-31-related alerts were issued only three times – on 3, 8, and 28 January – none of which resulted in strikes. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not commented on this operational pause. The Ukrainian Air Force’s official Telegram channel contains no information on MiG-31 combat missions related to the war in Ukraine.
According to unofficial information, MiG-31s have likely conducted flights after 28 January, but not for combat missions. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat confirmed this pause in MiG-31 flights to BBC.
Russian air attacks against civilian facilities continue with other weapons
During the period when Russian MiG-31Ks weren’t flying, Russia continued striking targets in Ukraine using other means. The daily explosive drone attacks have never stopped. Additionally, Russia targets Ukrainian cities with several missiles once every few days.
- On 19 February, Russia bombed a residential high-rise in Kherson, killing two people.
- On 18 and 19 February, Russia’s explosive drones targeted power and utility infrastructure in Odesa. In total, Russian used 14 missiles and 161 drone in the February 19-20 overnight attack.
- On 18 February, a Russian drone struck an apartment building in Dolynska, injuring a mother and her children. 167 drones were used in February 18-19 attack.
- The 17 February attack included 176 explsive drones.
- On 16 February, the Russians targeted Mykolaiv power plant.
- On 14 February, one of 133 Russian drones hit a radiation shelter of the Chornobyl Neclear Power Plant.
The most recent reported Kinzhal missile attack occurred overnight on 31 December 2024, when Russia targeted Ukraine with 61 aerial weapons. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, air defense systems shot down the only Kinzhal missile in that raid.
There is no indication that Russia is running out of Kinzhal missiles. Such evidence would likely emerge through intelligence leaks or open-source investigations, but no major reports on this topic have surfaced recently.
Aircraft resource depletion?
The BBC suggests a plausible explanation: some aircraft components may have reached the end of their service life, prompting a suspension of flights. All MiG-31s were produced before 1994, with up to 500 units built. However, by 2023, Russia retained only 129, according to Military Balance 2023 and World Air Forces 2023. Military Balance specifically identifies 12 MiG-31K aircraft.
Every aircraft has a designated service life, measured in flight hours or “cycles” the number of takeoffs and landings. According to Analysis of the Aging Process of D-30F6 Aircraft Engines During Operation, structural degradation in MiG-31 engines begins after just 350 hours of operation. MiG-31K fighters endure greater stress than standard MiG-31s due to the 4.3-ton Kinzhal missile’s concentrated load under the fuselage.
The AL-41F1S engine used in the Su-35 fighter has a service life of 3,000 hours, extendable to 4,000 hours with component replacements.
MiG-31K’s D-30F6 engines are no longer produced, but as of 2014, around 1,500 had been manufactured with a significant reserve in Russia. The number remaining is unclear, depending on operational intensity and the strain these aircraft endure during flights.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat told BBC that, in his view, pauses in MiG-31 combat missions do not indicate Russian operational issues:
“Russia has a complete cycle of production, repair, and modernization of Su and MiG aircraft. If something breaks, they’ll replace it; this is not a problem for Russia,” he believes.
Possible reasons for the absence of MiG-31 missions include operational planning, adverse weather, or stockpiling Kinzhals rather than aircraft wear, according to Ihnat.
Related:
- Russian drone attack injures civilian in Mykolaiv, missiles target Odesa
- Ukraine’s F-16s deploy US missiles adapted to defeat Russian air tactics, TWZ reports
- Russians accidentally drop another “smart bomb” on domestic territory
- Ukraine builds missile-proof school underground to keep children learning
- Germany pledges 100 IRIS-T missiles for Ukrainian air defense
- Russia shifts missile strike tactics as Ukraine deploys F-16 jets, expert says
