President Donald Trump, who has assumed office a week ago, has previously promised to cut US military aid to Ukraine, recently stating he wanted to broker a deal between Kyiv and Moscow to end the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.
According to Politico, Ukrainian officials don't believe Trump can secure a favorable peace deal. Instead, they're banking on Putin's intransigence eventually frustrating Trump, leading to stronger US support for Ukraine. Their calculation rests on the belief that Putin will accept nothing less than Ukraine's complete surrender - something they expect, for some reason, Trump to reject.
Trump, meanwhile, believes he can pressure Putin into a fair settlement through threats of enhanced economic warfare against Russia's already struggling economy.
Last week, Trump initiated his approach by threatening Russia with additional sanctions and tariffs.
"We can do it the easy way, or the hard way — and the easy way is always better," Trump posted on Truth Social in a message directed at Putin, Politico reports.Putin's response shifted quickly from initial dismissal to flattery. The Russian leader praised Trump, describing their relationship as "businesslike, pragmatic and trustworthy," and supported Trump's claims about the 2020 election and the war's origins. The strategy of using enhanced sanctions comes from Trump's special envoy, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, rather than following calls from some MAGA supporters like Steve Bannon to cut off military aid to Ukraine entirely.
A top Republican lobbyist advising Ukrainian agencies told Politico that a December meeting between Kellogg, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak was positive. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the lobbyist said Ukraine needs to let Trump's team discover Putin's unwillingness to compromise through direct experience.
Ukraine is cooperating with this approach while remaining concerned about Putin manipulating Trump through flattery, fears Zelenskyy expressed in a recent television address.
Mykola Bielieskov of the Pentagon-funded National Institute for Strategic Studies warned that Putin may be more confident now than last year, citing consistent Russian gains along the front line in 2024 despite no major breakthroughs. According to Bielieskov, Russia's army might achieve a more decisive breakthrough in the coming year while diplomatically stalling Trump to prevent increased US support.
Related:
- Ukraine needs combat-ready peacekeepers to counter Russian advances, says former ambassador
- Trump’s “60 million Russian deaths”: the dangerous myth behind his Ukraine peace plan
- US diplomats seek Ukraine exemption from Rubio’s aid freeze
- USAID Ukraine office ordered to suspend all project funding, Suspilne says
- The Independent: Trump plans to end war in Ukraine by spring, sources say
- ISW: Putin tells Russians to expect long war
- Putin claims readiness for talks, demands Ukraine repeal Zelenskyy’s decree
- Zelenskyy “no angel,” shouldn’t have allowed war, Trump says
- Putin flatters Trump, says Ukraine war wouldn’t happen if his “victory wasn’t stolen” in 2020
- Kremlin says it sees nothing new in Trump’s warning of sanctions
- “Make a deal”: Trump threatens Putin with tariffs, sanctions if war continues
