The collapse of Russia’s position in Syria and Assad’s regime represents more than just a blow to Putin’s reputation – though it certainly impacts that too. The situation requires a more complex analysis. Let’s examine what Russia has lost along with Assad’s fall.
More footage of Syrians exploring Assad's abandoned palace
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) December 8, 2024
Just 10 days ago, when the opposition launched its offensive, the Assad family's 50-year rule appeared unshakable.
📹various sources pic.twitter.com/NKlfWzeFic
First, addressing potential gains: Could Russian forces from Syria strengthen the occupying army in Ukraine?
No, these forces cannot significantly impact the war in Ukraine. The majority of Russian troops in Syria are specialists in aviation, air defense, and engineering units, poorly adapted to front-line needs here. Equipment evacuation has faced significant challenges.
Indeed, Russia’s withdrawal of forces and resources from Syria to Ukraine became one of the key factors in Assad’s rapid collapse. Now, let’s examine the losses in detail:
Loss of Middle East influence
Russia has largely lost its status as a significant player, as Syria was its key ally in the region.
Without Assad’s regime, Russia will struggle to influence key regional countries (Iran, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Israel). Russia has also lost its role as a counterweight to the US in the region, strengthening Washington’s position and its allies (Israel, Saudi Arabia, and UAE).
Strategic military bases
The loss of strategic military bases (while not yet occurred, but highly likely in the near future) in Tartus and Khmeimim represents, primarily, the loss of a logistics hub for establishing Russian presence in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa. Almost all operations in Africa were serviced through Syrian hubs.
Russia has now definitively lost the capability for rapid response to regional conflicts.
Economic losses
Russia invested billions of dollars in supporting Assad, hoping for long-term economic benefits:
- Fertilizers: Russian companies extracted phosphates in Syria, one of the world’s largest deposits. Phosphates are a crucial element of global food security.
- Oil: Stroytransgaz (controlled by Gennady Timchenko) obtained rights to develop key oil and gas fields in Syria.
- Logistics: In 2019, Russia signed a 49-year lease for the Tartus seaport. This port was planned as a logistics center for trade, resource transportation, and military operations.
- Collapse of regional drug trafficking: Syria was a production center for fenethylline, also known as captagon, a synthetic substance transported to Europe and Middle Eastern countries. Russia was a “shareholder” in this flow. Now this cash source for Russia will be blocked.
Iran to weaken as Türkiye’s influence grows
The strengthening of Erdogan’s influence and weakening of Iran’s role will also impact Tehran and Moscow’s energy and political ambitions. Iran has lost a key partner, reducing its influence in the Middle East. Iranian forces have effectively been evacuated from the country, and Tehran’s government is negotiating with Syrian Sunnis about Shiite security – this represents the maximum extent of their capabilities now.
Erdogan will now control almost all Black Sea and Mediterranean oil and gas routes.
Europe’s security gains
Europe can breathe more freely. Russia has lost its instrument for blackmailing the EU through control of human trafficking and energy resources.
Russia had planned to use Syria for oil and gas transportation to the Mediterranean Sea, which could have provided access to European markets. Additionally, the tool for pressuring Europe through provoking migration crises has disappeared.
Decline of Russian global influence
Overall, Russia’s withdrawal from Syria signals the decline of Russia’s global influence. Assad’s fall has discredited Russia as a reliable partner for other dictatorships. The regime’s collapse within several weeks demonstrated that Moscow is incapable of effectively maintaining its assets.
The collapse of the Syrian project continues to destroy the myth of Russian “invincibility” and demonstrates the limitations of its global influence. Syria was an important leverage point for Russia in negotiations with the West, including on Ukrainian matters.
Regardless of what Russian propaganda and Trump might say, everything that has occurred is a confirmation of Russia’s real capabilities, which have significantly declined over these years. And no “ceasefire” in Ukraine, even if it happens, will save Putin’s regime.
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